bayesRatings

Rams at Cardinals

NFL · Sunday, Dec 7 · 3:25 PM CT · State Farm Stadium · Final LAR 45 – ARI 17
← NFL / Dec 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAR101414745
ARI730717
Team box
LAR·ARI
530
total yards
314
281
passing yards
263
249
rushing yards
51
30
first downs
17
3-8
third downs
4-12
0
turnovers
1
35:04
time of possession
24:56
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Matthew StaffordLAR22/3128130
Jacoby BrissettARI25/4427121
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Blake CorumLAR121282
Jacoby BrissettARI4220
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Puka NacuaLAR71672
Michael WilsonARI111422

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +35
LAR +35
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ARI 7 · LAR 35lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAR 70%, ARI 30% · Updated Dec 7, 2025

Expected margin
LAR by 6.8
Expected score
LAR 27.2 – 20.5 ARI
Expected total
47.7
RamsThe matchupCardinals
−230Our fair odds+230
27.2Expected points20.5
+0.86Power rating−0.32
27.8Points / game22.1
17.5Allowed / game25.2
360Total yards / game337
5.9Yards / play5.2
247Passing yards / game237
9−3Season record3−9
7−3Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAR chance · ARI chance
Our model fair69.7%30.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LARLos Angeles Rams−23070%————
ARIArizona Cardinals+23030%————
SpreadLAR by 6.8
LARLos Angeles Rams−6.8our margin————
ARIArizona Cardinals+6.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.7
Over47.7our total————
Under47.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 6.8 expected
Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 5%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 8%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 5%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: <1%
← LAR wins byARI wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more65%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more47%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more39%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.7 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.567%
Total over 47.548%
Total over 54.530%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 64% completions, 215 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted
ARIJacoby Brissett · last 3 games: 75% completions, 357 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAR·ARI
Nov 30, 2025 at CAR
last game
Nov 30, 2025 at TB
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
LAR·ARI
+0.86
rating (0 = average)
−0.32
27.8
points / game
22.1
17.5
points allowed / game
25.2
9−3
season record
3−9
5−1
home record
1−5
4−2
away record
2−4
L1
streak
L4
7−3
last 10
1−9
360
total yards / game
337
5.9
yards / play
5.2
247
passing yards / game
237
114
rushing yards / game
101
22.4
first downs / game
20.7
0.9
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

LAR · ARI · 39 days
Los Angeles RamsArizona Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · ARI 3−6
Dec 28, 2024at LARLAR 13 − 9
Sep 15, 2024at ARIARI 41 − 10
Nov 26, 2023at ARILAR 37 − 14
Oct 15, 2023at LARLAR 26 − 9
Nov 13, 2022at LARARI 27 − 17
Sep 25, 2022at ARILAR 20 − 12
Jan 17, 2022at LARLAR 34 − 11post
Dec 13, 2021at ARILAR 30 − 23
Oct 3, 2021at LARARI 37 − 20

LAR · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Nov 30, 2025at CAR28 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs TB34 − 7W
Nov 16, 2025vs SEA21 − 19W
Nov 9, 2025at SF42 − 26W
Nov 2, 2025vs NO34 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025at JAX35 − 7W
Oct 12, 2025at BAL17 − 3W
Oct 2, 2025vs SF23 − 26L
Sep 28, 2025vs IND27 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025at PHI26 − 33L

ARI · Last 10

1−9 · streak L4
Nov 30, 2025at TB17 − 20L
Nov 23, 2025vs JAX24 − 27L
Nov 16, 2025vs SF22 − 41L
Nov 9, 2025at SEA22 − 44L
Nov 3, 2025at DAL27 − 17W
Oct 19, 2025vs GB23 − 27L
Oct 12, 2025at IND27 − 31L
Oct 5, 2025vs TEN21 − 22L
Sep 25, 2025vs SEA20 − 23L
Sep 21, 2025at SF15 − 16L