bayesRatings

Cardinals at Buccaneers

NFL · Sunday, Nov 30 · 12:00 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium · Final ARI 17 – TB 20
← NFL / Nov 30, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ARI037717
TB0107320
Team box
ARI·TB
386
total yards
279
291
passing yards
184
95
rushing yards
95
22
first downs
13
3-8
third downs
7-16
2
turnovers
0
29:34
time of possession
30:26
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jacoby BrissettARI29/4030121
Baker MayfieldTB18/2819410
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bam KnightARI11620
Bucky IrvingTB17611
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Trey McBrideARI8821
Chris Godwin Jr.TB3780

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +14
ARI +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TB 14 · ARI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 30%, TB 70% · Updated Nov 30, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 5.9
Expected score
TB 28.7 – 22.8 ARI
Expected total
51.5
CardinalsThe matchupBuccaneers
+229Our fair odds−229
22.8Expected points28.7
−0.36Power rating+0.20
22.5Points / game23.5
25.7Allowed / game25.8
333Total yards / game320
5.1Yards / play5.1
232Passing yards / game208
3−8Season record6−5
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · TB chance
Our model fair30.4%69.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Cardinals+22930%————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−22970%————
SpreadTB by 5.9
ARIArizona Cardinals+5.9our margin————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−5.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 51.5
Over51.5our total————
Under51.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5.9 expected
Arizona Cardinals by 45 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 44 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 43 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 42 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 41 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 7%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 7%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 39 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 40 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 41 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 42 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 43 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 44 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 45 points: <1%
← ARI wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 3 or more60%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 7 or more44%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 10 or more36%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

51.5 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 44.566%
Total over 51.547%
Total over 58.531%
Total from 45 to 5835%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ARIJacoby Brissett · last 3 games: 68% completions, 342 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 59% completions, 162 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·TB
Nov 23, 2025 vs JAX
last game
Nov 23, 2025 at LAR
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
ARI·TB
−0.36
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
22.5
points / game
23.5
25.7
points allowed / game
25.8
3−8
season record
6−5
1−5
home record
2−2
2−3
away record
4−3
L3
streak
L3
2−8
last 10
5−5
333
total yards / game
320
5.1
yards / play
5.1
232
passing yards / game
208
101
rushing yards / game
111
20.5
first downs / game
19.1
1.2
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

ARI · TB · 36 days
Arizona CardinalsTampa Bay Buccaneers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · TB 1−0
Dec 25, 2022at ARITB 19 − 16

ARI · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Nov 23, 2025vs JAX24 − 27L
Nov 16, 2025vs SF22 − 41L
Nov 9, 2025at SEA22 − 44L
Nov 3, 2025at DAL27 − 17W
Oct 19, 2025vs GB23 − 27L
Oct 12, 2025at IND27 − 31L
Oct 5, 2025vs TEN21 − 22L
Sep 25, 2025vs SEA20 − 23L
Sep 21, 2025at SF15 − 16L
Sep 14, 2025vs CAR27 − 22W

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Nov 23, 2025at LAR7 − 34L
Nov 16, 2025at BUF32 − 44L
Nov 9, 2025vs NE23 − 28L
Oct 26, 2025at NO23 − 3W
Oct 20, 2025at DET9 − 24L
Oct 12, 2025vs SF30 − 19W
Oct 5, 2025at SEA38 − 35W
Sep 28, 2025vs PHI25 − 31L
Sep 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 27W
Sep 15, 2025at HOU20 − 19W