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Jaguars at Cardinals

NFL · Sunday, Nov 23 · 3:05 PM CT · State Farm Stadium · Final JAX 27 – ARI 24
← NFL / Nov 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
JAX7377327
ARI77010024
Team box
JAX·ARI
371
total yards
326
237
passing yards
271
134
rushing yards
55
18
first downs
25
3-11
third downs
5-16
4
turnovers
0
28:33
time of possession
37:26
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Trevor LawrenceJAX18/3025633
Jacoby BrissettARI33/4931710
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Travis Etienne Jr.JAX15860
Michael CarterARI5280
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Brenton StrangeJAX5930
Michael WilsonARI101180

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +7
JAX +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: ARI 4 · JAX 7lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was JAX 49%, ARI 51% · Updated Nov 23, 2025

Expected margin
ARI by 1.0
Expected score
ARI 24.5 – 23.5 JAX
Expected total
48.0
JaguarsThe matchupCardinals
+105Our fair odds−105
23.5Expected points24.5
−0.05Power rating−0.29
24.0Points / game22.4
22.6Allowed / game25.6
327Total yards / game334
5.0Yards / play5.1
199Passing yards / game228
6−4Season record3−7
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
JAX chance · ARI chance
Our model fair48.9%51.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+10549%————
ARIArizona Cardinals−10551%————
SpreadARI by 1.0
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+1our margin————
ARIArizona Cardinals−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.0
Over48.0our total————
Under48.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Cardinals by 1.0 expected
Jacksonville Jaguars by 40 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 39 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 5%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 9%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 7%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 4%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 4%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: <1%
← JAX wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Cardinals wins by 3 or more46%
Arizona Cardinals wins by 7 or more30%
Arizona Cardinals wins by 10 or more22%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.0 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.565%
Total over 48.546%
Total over 55.529%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 63% completions, 177 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted
ARIJacoby Brissett · last 3 games: 68% completions, 324 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
JAX·ARI
Nov 16, 2025 vs LAC
last game
Nov 16, 2025 vs SF
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
JAX·ARI
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.29
24.0
points / game
22.4
22.6
points allowed / game
25.6
6−4
season record
3−7
4−2
home record
1−4
2−2
away record
2−3
W1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
3−7
327
total yards / game
334
5.0
yards / play
5.1
199
passing yards / game
228
128
rushing yards / game
106
20.9
first downs / game
20.1
1.0
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

JAX · ARI · 32 days
Jacksonville JaguarsArizona Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · ARI 1−0
Sep 26, 2021at JAXARI 31 − 19

JAX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 16, 2025vs LAC35 − 6W
Nov 9, 2025at HOU29 − 36L
Nov 2, 2025at LV30 − 29W
Oct 19, 2025vs LAR7 − 35L
Oct 12, 2025vs SEA12 − 20L
Oct 6, 2025vs KC31 − 28W
Sep 28, 2025at SF26 − 21W
Sep 21, 2025vs HOU17 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025at CIN27 − 31L
Sep 7, 2025vs CAR26 − 10W

ARI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Nov 16, 2025vs SF22 − 41L
Nov 9, 2025at SEA22 − 44L
Nov 3, 2025at DAL27 − 17W
Oct 19, 2025vs GB23 − 27L
Oct 12, 2025at IND27 − 31L
Oct 5, 2025vs TEN21 − 22L
Sep 25, 2025vs SEA20 − 23L
Sep 21, 2025at SF15 − 16L
Sep 14, 2025vs CAR27 − 22W
Sep 7, 2025at NO20 − 13W