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Steelers at Lions

NFL · Sunday, Dec 21 · 3:25 PM CT · Ford Field · Final PIT 29 – DET 24
← NFL / Dec 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PIT3721729
DET01001424
Team box
PIT·DET
481
total yards
361
251
passing yards
346
230
rushing yards
15
23
first downs
23
8-16
third downs
6-15
1
turnovers
0
34:06
time of possession
25:54
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Aaron RodgersPIT27/4126610
Jared GoffDET34/5436430
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jaylen WarrenPIT141432
David MontgomeryDET4140
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Kenny GainwellPIT5781
Jameson WilliamsDET5700

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +12
PIT +12
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DET 7 · PIT 12lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 29%, DET 71% · Updated Dec 21, 2025

Expected margin
DET by 7.0
Expected score
DET 31.4 – 24.4 PIT
Expected total
55.7
SteelersThe matchupLions
+242Our fair odds−242
24.4Expected points31.4
+0.12Power rating+0.78
24.0Points / game30.6
23.3Allowed / game24.6
288Total yards / game380
5.2Yards / play6.2
196Passing yards / game249
8−6Season record8−6
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · DET chance
Our model fair29.2%70.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Steelers+24229%————
DETDetroit Lions−24271%————
SpreadDET by 7.0
PITPittsburgh Steelers+7our margin————
DETDetroit Lions−7our margin————
Totalwe expect 55.7
Over55.7our total————
Under55.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 7.0 expected
Pittsburgh Steelers by 46 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 45 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 44 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 43 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 42 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 41 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 40 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 39 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 6%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 2%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 7%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 26 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 27 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 29 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 32 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 40 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 41 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 42 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 43 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 44 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 45 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 46 points: <1%
← PIT wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more62%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more47%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more39%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

55.7 expected
19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 1%71 points: 2%72 points: 1%73 points: 2%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 48.565%
Total over 55.549%
Total over 62.533%
Total from 49 to 6232%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 68% completions, 208 yds/game, 3 TD, 0 INTstarted
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 69% completions, 301 yds/game, 6 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·DET
Dec 15, 2025 vs MIA
last game
Dec 14, 2025 at LAR
5 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
PIT·DET
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
+0.78
24.0
points / game
30.6
23.3
points allowed / game
24.6
8−6
season record
8−6
5−3
home record
5−2
3−3
away record
3−4
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
288
total yards / game
380
5.2
yards / play
6.2
196
passing yards / game
249
92
rushing yards / game
131
17.1
first downs / game
20.1
1.0
turnovers / game
0.6

Rating Trend

PIT · DET · 46 days
Pittsburgh SteelersDetroit Lions
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · DET 1−0
Nov 14, 2021at PITDET 16 − 16

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Dec 15, 2025vs MIA28 − 15W
Dec 7, 2025at BAL27 − 22W
Nov 30, 2025vs BUF7 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at CHI28 − 31L
Nov 16, 2025vs CIN34 − 12W
Nov 9, 2025at LAC10 − 25L
Nov 2, 2025vs IND27 − 20W
Oct 26, 2025vs GB25 − 35L
Oct 16, 2025at CIN31 − 33L
Oct 12, 2025vs CLE23 − 9W

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 14, 2025at LAR34 − 41L
Dec 4, 2025vs DAL44 − 30W
Nov 27, 2025vs GB24 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs NYG34 − 27W
Nov 16, 2025at PHI9 − 16L
Nov 9, 2025at WSH44 − 22W
Nov 2, 2025vs MIN24 − 27L
Oct 20, 2025vs TB24 − 9W
Oct 12, 2025at KC17 − 30L
Oct 5, 2025at CIN37 − 24W