bayesRatings

Steelers at Ravens

NFL · Sunday, Dec 7 · 12:00 PM CT · M&T Bank Stadium · Final PIT 27 – BAL 22
← NFL / Dec 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
PIT71010027
BAL367622
Team box
PIT·BAL
318
total yards
420
284
passing yards
203
34
rushing yards
217
13
first downs
22
6-14
third downs
7-18
0
turnovers
1
26:16
time of possession
33:44
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Aaron RodgersPIT23/3428410
Lamar JacksonBAL19/3521911
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kenny GainwellPIT4151
Derrick HenryBAL25940
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
DK MetcalfPIT71480
Zay FlowersBAL81240

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +14
PIT +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BAL 3 · PIT 14lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 35%, BAL 65% · Updated Dec 7, 2025

Expected margin
BAL by 5.5
Expected score
BAL 27.0 – 21.5 PIT
Expected total
48.5
SteelersThe matchupRavens
+182Our fair odds−182
21.5Expected points27.0
−0.02Power rating+0.32
23.4Points / game24.1
24.1Allowed / game24.4
282Total yards / game317
5.0Yards / play5.7
188Passing yards / game180
6−6Season record6−6
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · BAL chance
Our model fair35.5%64.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Steelers+18235%————
BALBaltimore Ravens−18265%————
SpreadBAL by 5.5
PITPittsburgh Steelers+5.5our margin————
BALBaltimore Ravens−5.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.5
Over48.5our total————
Under48.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Ravens by 5.5 expected
Pittsburgh Steelers by 45 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 44 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 43 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 42 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 41 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 40 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 39 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 7%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 7%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 39 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 40 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 41 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 42 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 43 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 44 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 45 points: <1%
← PIT wins byBAL wins by →
Baltimore Ravens wins by 3 or more58%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 7 or more43%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 10 or more34%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.5 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: <1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.567%
Total over 48.547%
Total over 55.530%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 52% completions, 131 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted
BALLamar Jackson · last 3 games: 55% completions, 197 yds/game, 0 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·BAL
Nov 30, 2025 vs BUF
last game
Nov 27, 2025 vs CIN
6 days
days of rest
9 days
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
PIT·BAL
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.32
23.4
points / game
24.1
24.1
points allowed / game
24.4
6−6
season record
6−6
4−3
home record
3−4
2−3
away record
3−2
L2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
5−5
282
total yards / game
317
5.0
yards / play
5.7
188
passing yards / game
180
94
rushing yards / game
137
17.0
first downs / game
18.1
1.2
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

PIT · BAL · 39 days
Pittsburgh SteelersBaltimore Ravens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · BAL 3−6
Jan 11, 2025at BALBAL 28 − 14post
Dec 21, 2024at BALBAL 34 − 17
Nov 17, 2024at PITPIT 18 − 16
Jan 6, 2024at BALPIT 17 − 10
Oct 8, 2023at PITPIT 17 − 10
Jan 1, 2023at BALPIT 16 − 13
Dec 11, 2022at PITBAL 16 − 14
Jan 9, 2022at BALPIT 16 − 13
Dec 5, 2021at PITPIT 20 − 19

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Nov 30, 2025vs BUF7 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at CHI28 − 31L
Nov 16, 2025vs CIN34 − 12W
Nov 9, 2025at LAC10 − 25L
Nov 2, 2025vs IND27 − 20W
Oct 26, 2025vs GB25 − 35L
Oct 16, 2025at CIN31 − 33L
Oct 12, 2025vs CLE23 − 9W
Sep 28, 2025vs MIN24 − 21W
Sep 21, 2025at NE21 − 14W

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Nov 27, 2025vs CIN14 − 32L
Nov 23, 2025vs NYJ23 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025at CLE23 − 16W
Nov 9, 2025at MIN27 − 19W
Oct 30, 2025at MIA28 − 6W
Oct 26, 2025vs CHI30 − 16W
Oct 12, 2025vs LAR3 − 17L
Oct 5, 2025vs HOU10 − 44L
Sep 28, 2025at KC20 − 37L
Sep 22, 2025vs DET30 − 38L