bayesRatings

Jets at Ravens

NFL · Sunday, Nov 23 · 12:00 PM CT · M&T Bank Stadium · Final NYJ 10 – BAL 23
← NFL / Nov 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NYJ070310
BAL0314623
Team box
NYJ·BAL
282
total yards
241
204
passing yards
143
78
rushing yards
98
15
first downs
16
4-11
third downs
2-11
2
turnovers
0
28:13
time of possession
31:47
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Tyrod TaylorNYJ17/2822211
Lamar JacksonBAL13/2315300
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Breece HallNYJ16440
Derrick HenryBAL21642
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Breece HallNYJ4750
Zay FlowersBAL5580

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +13
NYJ +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BAL 13 · NYJ 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYJ 21%, BAL 79% · Updated Nov 23, 2025

Expected margin
BAL by 11.7
Expected score
BAL 30.8 – 19.1 NYJ
Expected total
49.9
JetsThe matchupRavens
+386Our fair odds−386
19.1Expected points30.8
−0.70Power rating+0.45
20.9Points / game25.2
26.8Allowed / game25.1
282Total yards / game322
4.6Yards / play5.8
140Passing yards / game180
2−8Season record5−5
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYJ chance · BAL chance
Our model fair20.6%79.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYJNew York Jets+38621%————
BALBaltimore Ravens−38679%————
SpreadBAL by 11.7
NYJNew York Jets+11.7our margin————
BALBaltimore Ravens−11.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 49.9
Over49.9our total————
Under49.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Ravens by 11.7 expected
New York Jets by 49 points: <1%New York Jets by 48 points: <1%New York Jets by 47 points: <1%New York Jets by 46 points: <1%New York Jets by 45 points: <1%New York Jets by 44 points: <1%New York Jets by 43 points: <1%New York Jets by 42 points: <1%New York Jets by 41 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 25 points: <1%New York Jets by 24 points: <1%New York Jets by 23 points: <1%New York Jets by 22 points: <1%New York Jets by 21 points: <1%New York Jets by 20 points: <1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 18 points: <1%New York Jets by 17 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: <1%New York Jets by 15 points: <1%New York Jets by 14 points: 1%New York Jets by 13 points: <1%New York Jets by 12 points: <1%New York Jets by 11 points: <1%New York Jets by 10 points: 1%New York Jets by 9 points: <1%New York Jets by 8 points: 1%New York Jets by 7 points: 2%New York Jets by 6 points: 1%New York Jets by 5 points: 1%New York Jets by 4 points: 2%New York Jets by 3 points: 5%New York Jets by 2 points: 1%New York Jets by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 6%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 39 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 40 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 41 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 42 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 43 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 44 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 45 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 46 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 47 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 48 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 49 points: <1%
← NYJ wins byBAL wins by →
Baltimore Ravens wins by 3 or more74%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 7 or more60%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 10 or more51%
Within 3 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

49.9 expected
15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 42.568%
Total over 49.548%
Total over 56.532%
Total from 43 to 5636%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYJTyrod Taylor · last 3 games: 62% completions, 126 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted
BALLamar Jackson · last 3 games: 64% completions, 191 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYJ·BAL
Nov 13, 2025 at NE
last game
Nov 16, 2025 at CLE
9 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
NYJ·BAL
−0.70
rating (0 = average)
+0.45
20.9
points / game
25.2
26.8
points allowed / game
25.1
2−8
season record
5−5
1−5
home record
2−3
1−3
away record
3−2
L1
streak
W4
2−8
last 10
5−5
282
total yards / game
322
4.6
yards / play
5.8
140
passing yards / game
180
142
rushing yards / game
142
17.5
first downs / game
18.5
1.2
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

NYJ · BAL · 32 days
New York JetsBaltimore Ravens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · BAL 1−0
Sep 11, 2022at NYJBAL 24 − 9

NYJ · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Nov 13, 2025at NE14 − 27L
Nov 9, 2025vs CLE27 − 20W
Oct 26, 2025at CIN39 − 38W
Oct 19, 2025vs CAR6 − 13L
Oct 12, 2025vs DEN11 − 13L
Oct 5, 2025vs DAL22 − 37L
Sep 29, 2025at MIA21 − 27L
Sep 21, 2025at TB27 − 29L
Sep 14, 2025vs BUF10 − 30L
Sep 7, 2025vs PIT32 − 34L

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W4
Nov 16, 2025at CLE23 − 16W
Nov 9, 2025at MIN27 − 19W
Oct 30, 2025at MIA28 − 6W
Oct 26, 2025vs CHI30 − 16W
Oct 12, 2025vs LAR3 − 17L
Oct 5, 2025vs HOU10 − 44L
Sep 28, 2025at KC20 − 37L
Sep 22, 2025vs DET30 − 38L
Sep 14, 2025vs CLE41 − 17W
Sep 7, 2025at BUF40 − 41L