bayesRatings

Dolphins at Steelers

NFL · Monday, Dec 15 · 7:15 PM CT · Acrisure Stadium · Final MIA 15 – PIT 28
← NFL / Dec 15, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA0301215
PIT0714728
Team box
MIA·PIT
285
total yards
336
222
passing yards
201
63
rushing yards
135
16
first downs
22
2-8
third downs
4-13
1
turnovers
0
26:27
time of possession
33:33
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Tua TagovailoaMIA22/2825321
Aaron RodgersPIT23/2722420
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
De'Von AchaneMIA12600
Kenny GainwellPIT13800
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
De'Von AchaneMIA6670
DK MetcalfPIT3551

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +25
MIA +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PIT 25 · MIA 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 40%, PIT 60% · Updated Dec 15, 2025

Expected margin
PIT by 2.9
Expected score
PIT 23.3 – 20.4 MIA
Expected total
43.7
DolphinsThe matchupSteelers
+149Our fair odds−149
20.4Expected points23.3
−0.11Power rating+0.05
21.6Points / game23.7
22.8Allowed / game23.9
305Total yards / game284
5.4Yards / play5.1
178Passing yards / game195
6−7Season record7−6
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · PIT chance
Our model fair40.1%59.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Dolphins+14940%————
PITPittsburgh Steelers−14960%————
SpreadPIT by 2.9
MIAMiami Dolphins+2.9our margin————
PITPittsburgh Steelers−2.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.7
Over43.7our total————
Under43.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Pittsburgh Steelers by 2.9 expected
Miami Dolphins by 42 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 41 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 40 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 39 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 8%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 1 point: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 3 points: 7%Pittsburgh Steelers by 4 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 5 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 6 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 7 points: 4%Pittsburgh Steelers by 8 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 9 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 10 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 11 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 12 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 13 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 14 points: 2%Pittsburgh Steelers by 15 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 16 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 17 points: 3%Pittsburgh Steelers by 18 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 19 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 20 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 21 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 22 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 23 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 24 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 25 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 26 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 27 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 28 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 29 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 30 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 31 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 32 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 33 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 34 points: 1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 35 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 36 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 37 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 38 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 39 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 40 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 41 points: <1%Pittsburgh Steelers by 42 points: <1%
← MIA wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 3 or more51%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 7 or more35%
Pittsburgh Steelers wins by 10 or more27%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.7 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.569%
Total over 43.548%
Total over 50.530%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MIATua Tagovailoa · last 3 games: 61% completions, 152 yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INTstarted
PITAaron Rodgers · last 3 games: 60% completions, 172 yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·PIT
Dec 7, 2025 at NYJ
last game
Dec 7, 2025 at BAL
7 days
days of rest
7 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
MIA·PIT
−0.11
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
21.6
points / game
23.7
22.8
points allowed / game
23.9
6−7
season record
7−6
4−3
home record
4−3
2−4
away record
3−3
W4
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
305
total yards / game
284
5.4
yards / play
5.1
178
passing yards / game
195
126
rushing yards / game
89
17.7
first downs / game
16.7
1.4
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

MIA · PIT · 43 days
Miami DolphinsPittsburgh Steelers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · PIT 0−1
Oct 23, 2022at MIAMIA 16 − 10

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Dec 7, 2025at NYJ34 − 10W
Nov 30, 2025vs NO21 − 17W
Nov 16, 2025vs WSH16 − 13W
Nov 9, 2025vs BUF30 − 13W
Oct 30, 2025vs BAL6 − 28L
Oct 26, 2025at ATL34 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025at CLE6 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025vs LAC27 − 29L
Oct 5, 2025at CAR24 − 27L
Sep 29, 2025vs NYJ27 − 21W

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Dec 7, 2025at BAL27 − 22W
Nov 30, 2025vs BUF7 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at CHI28 − 31L
Nov 16, 2025vs CIN34 − 12W
Nov 9, 2025at LAC10 − 25L
Nov 2, 2025vs IND27 − 20W
Oct 26, 2025vs GB25 − 35L
Oct 16, 2025at CIN31 − 33L
Oct 12, 2025vs CLE23 − 9W
Sep 28, 2025vs MIN24 − 21W