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Dolphins at Jets

NFL · Sunday, Dec 7 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final MIA 34 – NYJ 10
← NFL / Dec 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA21301034
NYJ700310
Team box
MIA·NYJ
358
total yards
207
119
passing yards
142
239
rushing yards
65
23
first downs
12
2-10
third downs
1-12
0
turnovers
3
36:07
time of possession
23:53
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Tua TagovailoaMIA13/2112710
Brady CookNYJ14/3016302
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jaylen WrightMIA241071
Breece HallNYJ14430
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jaylen WaddleMIA5501
Mason TaylorNYJ5510

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYJ +24
MIA +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYJ 0 · MIA 24lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 53%, NYJ 47% · Updated Dec 7, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 0.5
Expected score
MIA 22.0 – 21.5 NYJ
Expected total
43.5
DolphinsThe matchupJets
−114Our fair odds+114
22.0Expected points21.5
−0.21Power rating−0.64
20.6Points / game20.5
23.8Allowed / game26.2
300Total yards / game280
5.4Yards / play4.6
183Passing yards / game147
5−7Season record3−9
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · NYJ chance
Our model fair53.3%46.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Dolphins−11453%————
NYJNew York Jets+11447%————
SpreadMIA by 0.5
MIAMiami Dolphins−0.5our margin————
NYJNew York Jets+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.5
Over43.5our total————
Under43.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Dolphins by 0.5 expected
Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 5%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 9%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New York Jets by 1 point: 2%New York Jets by 2 points: 3%New York Jets by 3 points: 7%New York Jets by 4 points: 2%New York Jets by 5 points: 2%New York Jets by 6 points: 4%New York Jets by 7 points: 4%New York Jets by 8 points: 3%New York Jets by 9 points: 1%New York Jets by 10 points: 2%New York Jets by 11 points: 1%New York Jets by 12 points: 1%New York Jets by 13 points: 1%New York Jets by 14 points: 1%New York Jets by 15 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: 1%New York Jets by 17 points: 2%New York Jets by 18 points: 1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 20 points: 1%New York Jets by 21 points: 1%New York Jets by 22 points: 1%New York Jets by 23 points: 1%New York Jets by 24 points: 1%New York Jets by 25 points: 1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: 1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%
← MIA wins byNYJ wins by →
Miami Dolphins wins by 3 or more48%
Miami Dolphins wins by 7 or more29%
Miami Dolphins wins by 10 or more22%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.5 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.568%
Total over 43.548%
Total over 50.529%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MIATua Tagovailoa · last 3 games: 64% completions, 167 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted
NYJBrady Cook · no recent games on recordstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·NYJ
Nov 30, 2025 vs NO
last game
Nov 30, 2025 vs ATL
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
MIA·NYJ
−0.21
rating (0 = average)
−0.64
20.6
points / game
20.5
23.8
points allowed / game
26.2
5−7
season record
3−9
4−3
home record
2−5
1−4
away record
1−4
W3
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
3−7
300
total yards / game
280
5.4
yards / play
4.6
183
passing yards / game
147
117
rushing yards / game
134
17.2
first downs / game
17.2
1.5
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

MIA · NYJ · 39 days
Miami DolphinsNew York Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NYJ 2−7
Sep 29, 2025at MIAMIA 27 − 21
Jan 5, 2025at NYJNYJ 32 − 20
Dec 8, 2024at MIAMIA 32 − 26
Dec 17, 2023at MIAMIA 30 − 0
Nov 24, 2023at NYJMIA 34 − 13
Jan 8, 2023at MIAMIA 11 − 6
Oct 9, 2022at NYJNYJ 40 − 17
Dec 19, 2021at MIAMIA 31 − 24
Nov 21, 2021at NYJMIA 24 − 17

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Nov 30, 2025vs NO21 − 17W
Nov 16, 2025vs WSH16 − 13W
Nov 9, 2025vs BUF30 − 13W
Oct 30, 2025vs BAL6 − 28L
Oct 26, 2025at ATL34 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025at CLE6 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025vs LAC27 − 29L
Oct 5, 2025at CAR24 − 27L
Sep 29, 2025vs NYJ27 − 21W
Sep 18, 2025at BUF21 − 31L

NYJ · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Nov 30, 2025vs ATL27 − 24W
Nov 23, 2025at BAL10 − 23L
Nov 13, 2025at NE14 − 27L
Nov 9, 2025vs CLE27 − 20W
Oct 26, 2025at CIN39 − 38W
Oct 19, 2025vs CAR6 − 13L
Oct 12, 2025vs DEN11 − 13L
Oct 5, 2025vs DAL22 − 37L
Sep 29, 2025at MIA21 − 27L
Sep 21, 2025at TB27 − 29L