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Saints at Dolphins

NFL · Sunday, Nov 30 · 12:00 PM CT · Hard Rock Stadium · Final NO 17 – MIA 21
← NFL / Nov 30, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO008917
MIA790521
Team box
NO·MIA
294
total yards
298
213
passing yards
134
81
rushing yards
164
20
first downs
16
4-12
third downs
4-12
2
turnovers
1
29:52
time of possession
30:08
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Tyler ShoughNO26/3823921
Tua TagovailoaMIA12/2315701
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Devin NealNO14470
De'Von AchaneMIA221341
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Devaughn VeleNO8931
Darren WallerMIA2470

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +16
NO +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 16 · NO 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 28%, MIA 72% · Updated Nov 30, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 8.4
Expected score
MIA 23.6 – 15.2 NO
Expected total
38.8
SaintsThe matchupDolphins
+261Our fair odds−261
15.2Expected points23.6
−0.96Power rating−0.26
15.0Points / game20.5
24.9Allowed / game24.5
297Total yards / game300
4.8Yards / play5.4
205Passing yards / game188
2−9Season record4−7
2−8Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · MIA chance
Our model fair27.7%72.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Saints+26128%————
MIAMiami Dolphins−26172%————
SpreadMIA by 8.4
NONew Orleans Saints+8.4our margin————
MIAMiami Dolphins−8.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 38.8
Over38.8our total————
Under38.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Dolphins by 8.4 expected
New Orleans Saints by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 6%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 2%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 7%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 39 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 40 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 41 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 42 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 43 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 44 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 45 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 46 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 47 points: <1%
← NO wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Dolphins wins by 3 or more66%
Miami Dolphins wins by 7 or more51%
Miami Dolphins wins by 10 or more43%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

38.8 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 31.570%
Total over 38.549%
Total over 45.529%
Total from 32 to 4541%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NOTyler Shough · last 3 games: 68% completions, 234 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted
MIATua Tagovailoa · last 3 games: 67% completions, 202 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·MIA
Nov 23, 2025 vs ATL
last game
Nov 16, 2025 vs WSH
6 days
days of rest
13 days
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
NO·MIA
−0.96
rating (0 = average)
−0.26
15.0
points / game
20.5
24.9
points allowed / game
24.5
2−9
season record
4−7
1−5
home record
3−3
1−4
away record
1−4
L1
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
4−6
297
total yards / game
300
4.8
yards / play
5.4
205
passing yards / game
188
92
rushing yards / game
113
18.3
first downs / game
17.4
1.5
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

NO · MIA · 36 days
New Orleans SaintsMiami Dolphins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · MIA 1−0
Dec 27, 2021at NOMIA 20 − 3

NO · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Nov 23, 2025vs ATL10 − 24L
Nov 9, 2025at CAR17 − 7W
Nov 2, 2025at LAR10 − 34L
Oct 26, 2025vs TB3 − 23L
Oct 19, 2025at CHI14 − 26L
Oct 12, 2025vs NE19 − 25L
Oct 5, 2025vs NYG26 − 14W
Sep 28, 2025at BUF19 − 31L
Sep 21, 2025at SEA13 − 44L
Sep 14, 2025vs SF21 − 26L

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Nov 16, 2025vs WSH16 − 13W
Nov 9, 2025vs BUF30 − 13W
Oct 30, 2025vs BAL6 − 28L
Oct 26, 2025at ATL34 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025at CLE6 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025vs LAC27 − 29L
Oct 5, 2025at CAR24 − 27L
Sep 29, 2025vs NYJ27 − 21W
Sep 18, 2025at BUF21 − 31L
Sep 14, 2025vs NE27 − 33L