bayesRatings

Falcons at Saints

NFL · Sunday, Nov 23 · 3:25 PM CT · Caesars Superdome · Final ATL 24 – NO 10
← NFL / Nov 23, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL3130824
NO070310
Team box
ATL·NO
302
total yards
293
181
passing yards
214
121
rushing yards
79
13
first downs
21
3-12
third downs
5-16
1
turnovers
2
27:09
time of possession
32:51
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Kirk CousinsATL16/2319921
Tyler ShoughNO30/4324301
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bijan RobinsonATL14700
Tyler ShoughNO7220
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Darnell MooneyATL3741
Chris OlaveNO9700

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +14
ATL +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 0 · ATL 14lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 50%, NO 50% · Updated Nov 23, 2025

Expected margin
NO by 0.6
Expected score
NO 19.9 – 19.3 ATL
Expected total
39.2
FalconsThe matchupSaints
+100Our fair odds−100
19.3Expected points19.9
−0.48Power rating−0.77
19.5Points / game15.5
23.9Allowed / game25.0
332Total yards / game297
5.4Yards / play4.9
213Passing yards / game204
3−7Season record2−8
3−7Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · NO chance
Our model fair49.9%50.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Falcons+10050%————
NONew Orleans Saints−10050%————
SpreadNO by 0.6
ATLAtlanta Falcons+0.6our margin————
NONew Orleans Saints−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.2
Over39.2our total————
Under39.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New Orleans Saints by 0.6 expected
Atlanta Falcons by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 5%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 9%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 7%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 40 points: <1%
← ATL wins byNO wins by →
New Orleans Saints wins by 3 or more45%
New Orleans Saints wins by 7 or more29%
New Orleans Saints wins by 10 or more21%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.2 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.569%
Total over 39.547%
Total over 46.528%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ATLKirk Cousins · last 3 games: 62% completions, 83 yds/game, 0 TD, 0 INTstarted
NOTyler Shough · last 3 games: 63% completions, 195 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·NO
Nov 16, 2025 vs CAR
last game
Nov 9, 2025 at CAR
6 days
days of rest
13 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 10+ games
ATL·NO
−0.48
rating (0 = average)
−0.77
19.5
points / game
15.5
23.9
points allowed / game
25.0
3−7
season record
2−8
2−3
home record
1−4
1−4
away record
1−4
L5
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
2−8
332
total yards / game
297
5.4
yards / play
4.9
213
passing yards / game
204
120
rushing yards / game
93
19.7
first downs / game
18.0
0.9
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

ATL · NO · 32 days
Atlanta FalconsNew Orleans Saints
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · NO 5−3
Nov 10, 2024at NONO 20 − 17
Sep 29, 2024at ATLATL 26 − 24
Jan 7, 2024at NONO 48 − 17
Nov 26, 2023at ATLATL 24 − 15
Dec 18, 2022at NONO 21 − 18
Sep 11, 2022at ATLNO 27 − 26
Jan 9, 2022at ATLNO 30 − 20
Nov 7, 2021at NOATL 27 − 25

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Nov 16, 2025vs CAR27 − 30L
Nov 9, 2025at IND25 − 31L
Nov 2, 2025at NE23 − 24L
Oct 26, 2025vs MIA10 − 34L
Oct 19, 2025at SF10 − 20L
Oct 13, 2025vs BUF24 − 14W
Sep 28, 2025vs WSH34 − 27W
Sep 21, 2025at CAR0 − 30L
Sep 14, 2025at MIN22 − 6W
Sep 7, 2025vs TB20 − 23L

NO · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Nov 9, 2025at CAR17 − 7W
Nov 2, 2025at LAR10 − 34L
Oct 26, 2025vs TB3 − 23L
Oct 19, 2025at CHI14 − 26L
Oct 12, 2025vs NE19 − 25L
Oct 5, 2025vs NYG26 − 14W
Sep 28, 2025at BUF19 − 31L
Sep 21, 2025at SEA13 − 44L
Sep 14, 2025vs SF21 − 26L
Sep 7, 2025vs ARI13 − 20L