bayesRatings

Falcons at Jets

NFL · Sunday, Nov 30 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final ATL 24 – NYJ 27
← NFL / Nov 30, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL0710724
NYJ0771327
Team box
ATL·NYJ
389
total yards
269
222
passing yards
159
167
rushing yards
110
25
first downs
16
4-12
third downs
7-16
1
turnovers
0
32:55
time of possession
27:05
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Kirk CousinsATL21/3323410
Tyrod TaylorNYJ19/3317210
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bijan RobinsonATL231421
Breece HallNYJ19681
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL7820
Adonai MitchellNYJ81021

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYJ +7
ATL +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYJ 7 · ATL 7lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 51%, NYJ 49% · Updated Nov 30, 2025

Expected margin
ATL by 0.2
Expected score
ATL 21.9 – 21.6 NYJ
Expected total
43.5
FalconsThe matchupJets
−103Our fair odds+103
21.9Expected points21.6
−0.40Power rating−0.76
19.9Points / game19.9
22.6Allowed / game26.5
330Total yards / game282
5.4Yards / play4.7
210Passing yards / game146
4−7Season record2−9
4−6Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · NYJ chance
Our model fair50.8%49.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Falcons−10351%————
NYJNew York Jets+10349%————
SpreadATL by 0.2
ATLAtlanta Falcons−0.2our margin————
NYJNew York Jets+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.5
Over43.5our total————
Under43.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Falcons by 0.2 expected
Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 5%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 9%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New York Jets by 1 point: 2%New York Jets by 2 points: 3%New York Jets by 3 points: 7%New York Jets by 4 points: 2%New York Jets by 5 points: 2%New York Jets by 6 points: 4%New York Jets by 7 points: 4%New York Jets by 8 points: 3%New York Jets by 9 points: 1%New York Jets by 10 points: 2%New York Jets by 11 points: 1%New York Jets by 12 points: 1%New York Jets by 13 points: 1%New York Jets by 14 points: 1%New York Jets by 15 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: 1%New York Jets by 17 points: 2%New York Jets by 18 points: 1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 20 points: 1%New York Jets by 21 points: 1%New York Jets by 22 points: 1%New York Jets by 23 points: 1%New York Jets by 24 points: 1%New York Jets by 25 points: 1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: 1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%
← ATL wins byNYJ wins by →
Atlanta Falcons wins by 3 or more47%
Atlanta Falcons wins by 7 or more29%
Atlanta Falcons wins by 10 or more21%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.5 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.568%
Total over 43.548%
Total over 50.529%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ATLKirk Cousins · last 3 games: 63% completions, 140 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted
NYJTyrod Taylor · last 3 games: 62% completions, 182 yds/game, 3 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·NYJ
Nov 23, 2025 at NO
last game
Nov 23, 2025 at BAL
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
ATL·NYJ
−0.40
rating (0 = average)
−0.76
19.9
points / game
19.9
22.6
points allowed / game
26.5
4−7
season record
2−9
2−3
home record
1−5
2−4
away record
1−4
W1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
2−8
330
total yards / game
282
5.4
yards / play
4.7
210
passing yards / game
146
120
rushing yards / game
136
19.1
first downs / game
17.3
0.9
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

ATL · NYJ · 36 days
Atlanta FalconsNew York Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · NYJ 0−2
Dec 3, 2023at NYJATL 13 − 8
Oct 10, 2021at ATLATL 27 − 20

ATL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Nov 23, 2025at NO24 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025vs CAR27 − 30L
Nov 9, 2025at IND25 − 31L
Nov 2, 2025at NE23 − 24L
Oct 26, 2025vs MIA10 − 34L
Oct 19, 2025at SF10 − 20L
Oct 13, 2025vs BUF24 − 14W
Sep 28, 2025vs WSH34 − 27W
Sep 21, 2025at CAR0 − 30L
Sep 14, 2025at MIN22 − 6W

NYJ · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Nov 23, 2025at BAL10 − 23L
Nov 13, 2025at NE14 − 27L
Nov 9, 2025vs CLE27 − 20W
Oct 26, 2025at CIN39 − 38W
Oct 19, 2025vs CAR6 − 13L
Oct 12, 2025vs DEN11 − 13L
Oct 5, 2025vs DAL22 − 37L
Sep 29, 2025at MIA21 − 27L
Sep 21, 2025at TB27 − 29L
Sep 14, 2025vs BUF10 − 30L