bayesRatings

Ravens at Packers

NFL · Saturday, Dec 27 · 7:00 PM CT · Lambeau Field · Final BAL 41 – GB 24
← NFL / Dec 27, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BAL72001441
GB7710024
Team box
BAL·GB
414
total yards
363
107
passing yards
284
307
rushing yards
79
30
first downs
18
10-14
third downs
3-6
0
turnovers
2
40:16
time of possession
19:44
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Tyler HuntleyBAL16/2010710
Malik WillisGB18/2128810
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Derrick HenryBAL362164
Malik WillisGB9602
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Zay FlowersBAL4301
Christian WatsonGB51131

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
GB +17
BAL +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: GB 0 · BAL 17lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 37%, GB 63% · Updated Dec 27, 2025

Expected margin
GB by 3.2
Expected score
GB 24.2 – 21.0 BAL
Expected total
45.2
RavensThe matchupPackers
+170Our fair odds−170
21.0Expected points24.2
+0.24Power rating+0.56
23.9Points / game24.3
23.2Allowed / game20.2
325Total yards / game345
5.8Yards / play5.7
177Passing yards / game223
7−8Season record9−5−1
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · GB chance
Our model fair37.0%63.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Ravens+17037%————
GBGreen Bay Packers−17063%————
SpreadGB by 3.2
BALBaltimore Ravens+3.2our margin————
GBGreen Bay Packers−3.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.2
Over45.2our total————
Under45.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Green Bay Packers by 3.2 expected
Baltimore Ravens by 42 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 41 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 40 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 39 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 8%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 2%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 7%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 39 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 40 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 41 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 42 points: <1%
← BAL wins byGB wins by →
Green Bay Packers wins by 3 or more52%
Green Bay Packers wins by 7 or more36%
Green Bay Packers wins by 10 or more28%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.2 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.567%
Total over 45.547%
Total over 52.529%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
BALTyler Huntley · last 3 games: 77% completions, 106 yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INTstarted
GBMalik Willis · last 3 games: 86% completions, 45 yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·GB
Dec 21, 2025 vs NE
last game
Dec 20, 2025 at CHI
5 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
BAL·GB
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.56
23.9
points / game
24.3
23.2
points allowed / game
20.2
7−8
season record
9−5−1
3−6
home record
5−2
4−2
away record
4−3−1
L1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
6−4
325
total yards / game
345
5.8
yards / play
5.7
177
passing yards / game
223
148
rushing yards / game
122
18.1
first downs / game
20.3
1.5
turnovers / game
0.7

Rating Trend

BAL · GB · 49 days
Baltimore RavensGreen Bay Packers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · GB 1−0
Dec 19, 2021at BALGB 31 − 30

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Dec 21, 2025vs NE24 − 28L
Dec 14, 2025at CIN24 − 0W
Dec 7, 2025vs PIT22 − 27L
Nov 27, 2025vs CIN14 − 32L
Nov 23, 2025vs NYJ23 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025at CLE23 − 16W
Nov 9, 2025at MIN27 − 19W
Oct 30, 2025at MIA28 − 6W
Oct 26, 2025vs CHI30 − 16W
Oct 12, 2025vs LAR3 − 17L

GB · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Dec 20, 2025at CHI16 − 22L
Dec 14, 2025at DEN26 − 34L
Dec 7, 2025vs CHI28 − 21W
Nov 27, 2025at DET31 − 24W
Nov 23, 2025vs MIN23 − 6W
Nov 16, 2025at NYG27 − 20W
Nov 10, 2025vs PHI7 − 10L
Nov 2, 2025vs CAR13 − 16L
Oct 26, 2025at PIT35 − 25W
Oct 19, 2025at ARI27 − 23W