bayesRatings

Patriots at Ravens

NFL · Sunday, Dec 21 · 7:20 PM CT · M&T Bank Stadium · Final NE 28 – BAL 24
← NFL / Dec 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NE01031528
BAL737724
Team box
NE·BAL
453
total yards
330
374
passing yards
159
79
rushing yards
171
24
first downs
18
4-12
third downs
7-11
2
turnovers
2
31:49
time of possession
28:11
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Drake MayeNE31/4438021
Lamar JacksonBAL7/1010100
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Rhamondre StevensonNE8511
Derrick HenryBAL181282
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Stefon DiggsNE91380
Zay FlowersBAL7840

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +11
NE +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BAL 11 · NE 4lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NE 41%, BAL 59% · Updated Dec 21, 2025

Expected margin
BAL by 2.8
Expected score
BAL 24.4 – 21.7 NE
Expected total
46.1
PatriotsThe matchupRavens
+141Our fair odds−141
21.7Expected points24.4
+0.23Power rating+0.32
27.3Points / game23.9
19.7Allowed / game22.9
364Total yards / game325
6.0Yards / play5.8
242Passing yards / game178
11−3Season record7−7
9−1Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NE chance · BAL chance
Our model fair41.4%58.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NENew England Patriots+14141%————
BALBaltimore Ravens−14159%————
SpreadBAL by 2.8
NENew England Patriots+2.8our margin————
BALBaltimore Ravens−2.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.1
Over46.1our total————
Under46.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Baltimore Ravens by 2.8 expected
New England Patriots by 42 points: <1%New England Patriots by 41 points: <1%New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 35 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: <1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: <1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 1%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 26 points: <1%New England Patriots by 25 points: <1%New England Patriots by 24 points: 1%New England Patriots by 23 points: 1%New England Patriots by 22 points: <1%New England Patriots by 21 points: 1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 1%New England Patriots by 19 points: 1%New England Patriots by 18 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 1%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 15 points: <1%New England Patriots by 14 points: 2%New England Patriots by 13 points: <1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 1%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 2%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 8 points: 2%New England Patriots by 7 points: 4%New England Patriots by 6 points: 3%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 4 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 8%New England Patriots by 2 points: 2%New England Patriots by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 1 point: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 2 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 3 points: 7%Baltimore Ravens by 4 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 5 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 6 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 7 points: 4%Baltimore Ravens by 8 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 9 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 10 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 11 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 12 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 13 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 14 points: 2%Baltimore Ravens by 15 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 16 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 17 points: 3%Baltimore Ravens by 18 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 19 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 20 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 21 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 22 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 23 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 24 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 25 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 26 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 27 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 28 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 29 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 30 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 31 points: 1%Baltimore Ravens by 32 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 33 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 34 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 35 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 36 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 37 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 38 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 39 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 40 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 41 points: <1%Baltimore Ravens by 42 points: <1%
← NE wins byBAL wins by →
Baltimore Ravens wins by 3 or more51%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 7 or more35%
Baltimore Ravens wins by 10 or more27%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.1 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.566%
Total over 46.546%
Total over 53.529%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 67% completions, 244 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted
BALLamar Jackson · last 3 games: 56% completions, 205 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NE·BAL
Dec 14, 2025 vs BUF
last game
Dec 14, 2025 at CIN
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
NE·BAL
+0.23
rating (0 = average)
+0.32
27.3
points / game
23.9
19.7
points allowed / game
22.9
11−3
season record
7−7
5−3
home record
3−5
6−0
away record
4−2
L1
streak
W1
9−1
last 10
6−4
364
total yards / game
325
6.0
yards / play
5.8
242
passing yards / game
178
122
rushing yards / game
146
20.4
first downs / game
18.1
1.0
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

NE · BAL · 46 days
New England PatriotsBaltimore Ravens
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · BAL 1−0
Sep 25, 2022at NEBAL 37 − 26

NE · Last 10

9−1 · streak L1
Dec 14, 2025vs BUF31 − 35L
Dec 1, 2025vs NYG33 − 15W
Nov 23, 2025at CIN26 − 20W
Nov 13, 2025vs NYJ27 − 14W
Nov 9, 2025at TB28 − 23W
Nov 2, 2025vs ATL24 − 23W
Oct 26, 2025vs CLE32 − 13W
Oct 19, 2025at TEN31 − 13W
Oct 12, 2025at NO25 − 19W
Oct 5, 2025at BUF23 − 20W

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 14, 2025at CIN24 − 0W
Dec 7, 2025vs PIT22 − 27L
Nov 27, 2025vs CIN14 − 32L
Nov 23, 2025vs NYJ23 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025at CLE23 − 16W
Nov 9, 2025at MIN27 − 19W
Oct 30, 2025at MIA28 − 6W
Oct 26, 2025vs CHI30 − 16W
Oct 12, 2025vs LAR3 − 17L
Oct 5, 2025vs HOU10 − 44L