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Lions at Bears

NFL · Sunday, Jan 4 · 3:25 PM CT · Soldier Field · Final DET 19 – CHI 16
← NFL / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DET3103319
CHI0001616
Team box
DET·CHI
433
total yards
270
311
passing yards
205
122
rushing yards
65
26
first downs
16
6-13
third downs
4-11
1
turnovers
1
35:45
time of possession
24:15
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jared GoffDET27/4233111
Caleb WilliamsCHI20/3321221
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jahmyr GibbsDET19800
D'Andre SwiftCHI10400
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET111390
Colston LovelandCHI10911

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +16
DET +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 0 · DET 16lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 50%, CHI 50% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
DET by 3.5
Expected score
DET 29.9 – 26.4 CHI
Expected total
56.4
LionsThe matchupBears
−100Our fair odds+100
29.9Expected points26.4
+0.49Power rating+0.27
28.9Points / game26.6
24.8Allowed / game24.8
369Total yards / game376
6.0Yards / play5.7
250Passing yards / game226
8−8Season record11−5
4−6Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · CHI chance
Our model fair50.0%50.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Lions−10050%————
CHIChicago Bears+10050%————
SpreadDET by 3.5
DETDetroit Lions−3.5our margin————
CHIChicago Bears+3.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 56.4
Over56.4our total————
Under56.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Lions by 3.5 expected
Detroit Lions by 39 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 38 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 37 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 36 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 35 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 34 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 33 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 32 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 31 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 30 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 29 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 28 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 27 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 26 points: <1%Detroit Lions by 25 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 24 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 23 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 22 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 21 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 20 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 19 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 18 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 17 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 16 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 15 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 14 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 13 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 12 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 11 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 10 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 9 points: 1%Detroit Lions by 8 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 7 points: 5%Detroit Lions by 6 points: 4%Detroit Lions by 5 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 4 points: 3%Detroit Lions by 3 points: 9%Detroit Lions by 2 points: 2%Detroit Lions by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 7%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 11 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%
← DET wins byCHI wins by →
Detroit Lions wins by 3 or more56%
Detroit Lions wins by 7 or more37%
Detroit Lions wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

56.4 expected
20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 1%71 points: 2%72 points: 1%73 points: 2%74 points: 2%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%97 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 49.565%
Total over 56.549%
Total over 63.533%
Total from 50 to 6332%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DETJared Goff · last 3 games: 62% completions, 300 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 59% completions, 274 yds/game, 6 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·CHI
Dec 25, 2025 at MIN
last game
Dec 28, 2025 at SF
9 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
DET·CHI
+0.49
rating (0 = average)
+0.27
28.9
points / game
26.6
24.8
points allowed / game
24.8
8−8
season record
11−5
5−3
home record
6−1
3−5
away record
5−4
L3
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
7−3
369
total yards / game
376
6.0
yards / play
5.7
250
passing yards / game
226
120
rushing yards / game
149
20.0
first downs / game
21.4
0.9
turnovers / game
0.6

Rating Trend

DET · CHI · 53 days
Detroit LionsChicago Bears
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CHI 3−6
Sep 14, 2025at DETDET 52 − 21
Dec 22, 2024at CHIDET 34 − 17
Nov 28, 2024at DETDET 23 − 20
Dec 10, 2023at CHICHI 28 − 13
Nov 19, 2023at DETDET 31 − 26
Jan 1, 2023at DETDET 41 − 10
Nov 13, 2022at CHIDET 31 − 30
Nov 25, 2021at DETCHI 16 − 14
Oct 3, 2021at CHICHI 24 − 14

DET · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Dec 25, 2025at MIN10 − 23L
Dec 21, 2025vs PIT24 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at LAR34 − 41L
Dec 4, 2025vs DAL44 − 30W
Nov 27, 2025vs GB24 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs NYG34 − 27W
Nov 16, 2025at PHI9 − 16L
Nov 9, 2025at WSH44 − 22W
Nov 2, 2025vs MIN24 − 27L
Oct 20, 2025vs TB24 − 9W

CHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Dec 28, 2025at SF38 − 42L
Dec 20, 2025vs GB22 − 16W
Dec 14, 2025vs CLE31 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025at GB21 − 28L
Nov 28, 2025at PHI24 − 15W
Nov 23, 2025vs PIT31 − 28W
Nov 16, 2025at MIN19 − 17W
Nov 9, 2025vs NYG24 − 20W
Nov 2, 2025at CIN47 − 42W
Oct 26, 2025at BAL16 − 30L