bayesRatings

Bears at 49ers

NFL · Sunday, Dec 28 · 7:20 PM CT · Levi's Stadium · Final CHI 38 – SF 42
← NFL / Dec 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHI14771038
SF14147742
Team box
CHI·SF
440
total yards
496
330
passing yards
296
110
rushing yards
200
26
first downs
32
6-12
third downs
7-10
0
turnovers
1
26:27
time of possession
33:33
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Caleb WilliamsCHI25/4233020
Brock PurdySF24/3330331
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
D'Andre SwiftCHI9542
Christian McCaffreySF231401
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Luther Burden IIICHI81381
Ricky PearsallSF5850

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +7
CHI +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SF 7 · CHI 7lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHI 39%, SF 61% · Updated Dec 28, 2025

Expected margin
SF by 3.6
Expected score
SF 26.2 – 22.6 CHI
Expected total
48.8
BearsThe matchup49ers
+154Our fair odds−154
22.6Expected points26.2
+0.32Power rating+0.53
25.8Points / game26.1
23.6Allowed / game21.3
371Total yards / game354
5.7Yards / play5.5
219Passing yards / game249
11−4Season record11−4
8−2Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHI chance · SF chance
Our model fair39.3%60.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHIChicago Bears+15439%————
SFSan Francisco 49ers−15461%————
SpreadSF by 3.6
CHIChicago Bears+3.6our margin————
SFSan Francisco 49ers−3.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.8
Over48.8our total————
Under48.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco 49ers by 3.6 expected
Chicago Bears by 43 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 42 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 41 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 40 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 15 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 13 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 8%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 7%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 42 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 43 points: <1%
← CHI wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco 49ers wins by 3 or more53%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 7 or more37%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 10 or more29%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.8 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.567%
Total over 48.548%
Total over 55.531%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 57% completions, 226 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted
SFBrock Purdy · last 3 games: 69% completions, 253 yds/game, 9 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHI·SF
Dec 20, 2025 vs GB
last game
Dec 22, 2025 at IND
7 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
CHI·SF
+0.32
rating (0 = average)
+0.53
25.8
points / game
26.1
23.6
points allowed / game
21.3
11−4
season record
11−4
6−1
home record
4−2
5−3
away record
7−2
W2
streak
W5
8−2
last 10
7−3
371
total yards / game
354
5.7
yards / play
5.5
219
passing yards / game
249
152
rushing yards / game
104
21.1
first downs / game
22.5
0.7
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

CHI · SF · 50 days
Chicago BearsSan Francisco 49ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · SF 2−1
Dec 8, 2024at SFSF 38 − 13
Sep 11, 2022at CHICHI 19 − 10
Oct 31, 2021at CHISF 33 − 22

CHI · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Dec 20, 2025vs GB22 − 16W
Dec 14, 2025vs CLE31 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025at GB21 − 28L
Nov 28, 2025at PHI24 − 15W
Nov 23, 2025vs PIT31 − 28W
Nov 16, 2025at MIN19 − 17W
Nov 9, 2025vs NYG24 − 20W
Nov 2, 2025at CIN47 − 42W
Oct 26, 2025at BAL16 − 30L
Oct 19, 2025vs NO26 − 14W

SF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Dec 22, 2025at IND48 − 27W
Dec 14, 2025vs TEN37 − 24W
Nov 30, 2025at CLE26 − 8W
Nov 24, 2025vs CAR20 − 9W
Nov 16, 2025at ARI41 − 22W
Nov 9, 2025vs LAR26 − 42L
Nov 2, 2025at NYG34 − 24W
Oct 26, 2025at HOU15 − 26L
Oct 19, 2025vs ATL20 − 10W
Oct 12, 2025at TB19 − 30L