bayesRatings

49ers at Colts

NFL · Monday, Dec 22 · 7:15 PM CT · Lucas Oil Stadium · Final SF 48 – IND 27
← NFL / Dec 22, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SF1410101448
IND7103727
Team box
SF·IND
440
total yards
312
295
passing yards
254
145
rushing yards
58
28
first downs
19
7-11
third downs
5-10
1
turnovers
2
33:05
time of possession
26:55
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Brock PurdySF25/3429551
Philip RiversIND23/3527721
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Christian McCaffreySF211170
Jonathan TaylorIND16461
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
George KittleSF71151
Alec PierceIND4862

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
IND +21
SF +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: IND 7 · SF 21lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 46%, IND 54% · Updated Dec 22, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 1.8
Expected score
IND 25.5 – 23.7 SF
Expected total
49.2
49ersThe matchupColts
+118Our fair odds−118
23.7Expected points25.5
+0.39Power rating+0.29
24.6Points / game28.0
20.9Allowed / game21.6
348Total yards / game358
5.4Yards / play6.0
246Passing yards / game229
10−4Season record8−6
7−3Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · IND chance
Our model fair45.9%54.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco 49ers+11846%————
INDIndianapolis Colts−11854%————
SpreadIND by 1.8
SFSan Francisco 49ers+1.8our margin————
INDIndianapolis Colts−1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 49.2
Over49.2our total————
Under49.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indianapolis Colts by 1.8 expected
San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 8%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 7%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 39 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 40 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 41 points: <1%
← SF wins byIND wins by →
Indianapolis Colts wins by 3 or more48%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 7 or more32%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

49.2 expected
15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 42.566%
Total over 49.546%
Total over 56.530%
Total from 43 to 5636%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SFBrock Purdy · last 3 games: 68% completions, 219 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted
INDPhilip Rivers · last 1 game: 67% completions, 120 yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·IND
Dec 14, 2025 vs TEN
last game
Dec 14, 2025 at SEA
7 days
days of rest
7 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
SF·IND
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
+0.29
24.6
points / game
28.0
20.9
points allowed / game
21.6
10−4
season record
8−6
4−2
home record
6−1
6−2
away record
2−5
W4
streak
L4
7−3
last 10
5−5
348
total yards / game
358
5.4
yards / play
6.0
246
passing yards / game
229
101
rushing yards / game
129
22.1
first downs / game
21.3
1.4
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

SF · IND · 47 days
San Francisco 49ersIndianapolis Colts
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · IND 1−0
Oct 24, 2021at SFIND 30 − 18

SF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Dec 14, 2025vs TEN37 − 24W
Nov 30, 2025at CLE26 − 8W
Nov 24, 2025vs CAR20 − 9W
Nov 16, 2025at ARI41 − 22W
Nov 9, 2025vs LAR26 − 42L
Nov 2, 2025at NYG34 − 24W
Oct 26, 2025at HOU15 − 26L
Oct 19, 2025vs ATL20 − 10W
Oct 12, 2025at TB19 − 30L
Oct 2, 2025at LAR26 − 23W

IND · Last 10

5−5 · streak L4
Dec 14, 2025at SEA16 − 18L
Dec 7, 2025at JAX19 − 36L
Nov 30, 2025vs HOU16 − 20L
Nov 23, 2025at KC20 − 23L
Nov 9, 2025vs ATL31 − 25W
Nov 2, 2025at PIT20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025vs TEN38 − 14W
Oct 19, 2025at LAC38 − 24W
Oct 12, 2025vs ARI31 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs LV40 − 6W