bayesRatings

Colts at Jaguars

NFL · Sunday, Dec 7 · 12:00 PM CT · EverBank Stadium · Final IND 19 – JAX 36
← NFL / Dec 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND733619
JAX14140836
Team box
IND·JAX
285
total yards
350
196
passing yards
247
89
rushing yards
103
20
first downs
18
6-11
third downs
7-15
3
turnovers
1
29:55
time of possession
30:05
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Riley LeonardIND18/2914501
Trevor LawrenceJAX17/3024420
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jonathan TaylorIND21741
Travis Etienne Jr.JAX20742
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Alec PierceIND5800
Brian Thomas Jr.JAX3870

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
JAX +23
IND +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: JAX 23 · IND 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 48%, JAX 52% · Updated Dec 7, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 1.1
Expected score
IND 24.5 – 23.4 JAX
Expected total
47.9
ColtsThe matchupJaguars
+106Our fair odds−106
24.5Expected points23.4
+0.34Power rating+0.11
29.8Points / game24.3
20.8Allowed / game21.1
375Total yards / game326
6.3Yards / play5.0
241Passing yards / game203
8−4Season record8−4
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · JAX chance
Our model fair48.4%51.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndianapolis Colts+10648%————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−10652%————
SpreadIND by 1.1
INDIndianapolis Colts−1.1our margin————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.9
Over47.9our total————
Under47.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indianapolis Colts by 1.1 expected
Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 5%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 9%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 7%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%
← IND wins byJAX wins by →
Indianapolis Colts wins by 3 or more50%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 7 or more31%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.9 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.568%
Total over 47.548%
Total over 54.531%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
INDRiley Leonard · last 1 game: 0% completions, 0 yds/game, 0 TD, 0 INTstarted
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 61% completions, 213 yds/game, 6 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·JAX
Nov 30, 2025 vs HOU
last game
Nov 30, 2025 at TEN
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
IND·JAX
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
29.8
points / game
24.3
20.8
points allowed / game
21.1
8−4
season record
8−4
6−1
home record
4−2
2−3
away record
4−2
L2
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
7−3
375
total yards / game
326
6.3
yards / play
5.0
241
passing yards / game
203
134
rushing yards / game
123
22.0
first downs / game
20.6
1.0
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

IND · JAX · 39 days
Indianapolis ColtsJacksonville Jaguars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · JAX 5−3
Jan 5, 2025at INDIND 26 − 23
Oct 6, 2024at JAXJAX 37 − 34
Oct 15, 2023at JAXJAX 37 − 20
Sep 10, 2023at INDJAX 31 − 21
Oct 16, 2022at INDIND 34 − 27
Sep 18, 2022at JAXJAX 24 − 0
Jan 9, 2022at JAXJAX 26 − 11
Nov 14, 2021at INDIND 23 − 17

IND · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Nov 30, 2025vs HOU16 − 20L
Nov 23, 2025at KC20 − 23L
Nov 9, 2025vs ATL31 − 25W
Nov 2, 2025at PIT20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025vs TEN38 − 14W
Oct 19, 2025at LAC38 − 24W
Oct 12, 2025vs ARI31 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs LV40 − 6W
Sep 28, 2025at LAR20 − 27L
Sep 21, 2025at TEN41 − 20W

JAX · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Nov 30, 2025at TEN25 − 3W
Nov 23, 2025at ARI27 − 24W
Nov 16, 2025vs LAC35 − 6W
Nov 9, 2025at HOU29 − 36L
Nov 2, 2025at LV30 − 29W
Oct 19, 2025vs LAR7 − 35L
Oct 12, 2025vs SEA12 − 20L
Oct 6, 2025vs KC31 − 28W
Sep 28, 2025at SF26 − 21W
Sep 21, 2025vs HOU17 − 10W