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Jaguars at Titans

NFL · Sunday, Nov 30 · 12:00 PM CT · Nissan Stadium · Final JAX 25 – TEN 3
← NFL / Nov 30, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
JAX7117025
TEN30003
Team box
JAX·TEN
272
total yards
188
202
passing yards
121
70
rushing yards
67
20
first downs
11
3-13
third downs
2-12
0
turnovers
2
31:26
time of possession
28:34
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Trevor LawrenceJAX16/2722920
Cam WardTEN24/3814100
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Travis Etienne Jr.JAX12280
Tony PollardTEN10600
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jakobi MeyersJAX6901
Chig OkonkwoTEN4290

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEN +22
JAX +22
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TEN 3 · JAX 22lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was JAX 72%, TEN 28% · Updated Nov 30, 2025

Expected margin
JAX by 7.3
Expected score
JAX 25.6 – 18.4 TEN
Expected total
44.0
JaguarsThe matchupTitans
−260Our fair odds+260
25.6Expected points18.4
+0.02Power rating−1.32
24.3Points / game15.2
22.7Allowed / game27.5
331Total yards / game247
5.1Yards / play4.2
203Passing yards / game170
7−4Season record1−10
6−4Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
JAX chance · TEN chance
Our model fair72.2%27.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−26072%————
TENTennessee Titans+26028%————
SpreadJAX by 7.3
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−7.3our margin————
TENTennessee Titans+7.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.0
Over44.0our total————
Under44.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Jacksonville Jaguars by 7.3 expected
Jacksonville Jaguars by 40 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 39 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 5%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 5%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 8%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 2%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 5%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: 3%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 40 points: <1%
← JAX wins byTEN wins by →
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 3 or more66%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 7 or more49%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 10 or more41%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.0 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.566%
Total over 44.546%
Total over 51.528%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 60% completions, 189 yds/game, 5 TD, 5 INTstarted
TENCam Ward · last 3 games: 64% completions, 198 yds/game, 2 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
JAX·TEN
Nov 23, 2025 at ARI
last game
Nov 23, 2025 vs SEA
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 11+ games
JAX·TEN
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
−1.32
24.3
points / game
15.2
22.7
points allowed / game
27.5
7−4
season record
1−10
4−2
home record
0−6
3−2
away record
1−4
W2
streak
L6
6−4
last 10
1−9
331
total yards / game
247
5.1
yards / play
4.2
203
passing yards / game
170
128
rushing yards / game
78
20.6
first downs / game
15.4
1.3
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

JAX · TEN · 36 days
Jacksonville JaguarsTennessee Titans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · TEN 3−5
Dec 29, 2024at JAXJAX 20 − 13
Dec 8, 2024at TENJAX 10 − 6
Jan 7, 2024at TENTEN 28 − 20
Nov 19, 2023at JAXJAX 34 − 14
Jan 7, 2023at JAXJAX 20 − 16
Dec 11, 2022at TENJAX 36 − 22
Dec 12, 2021at TENTEN 20 − 0
Oct 10, 2021at JAXTEN 37 − 19

JAX · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Nov 23, 2025at ARI27 − 24W
Nov 16, 2025vs LAC35 − 6W
Nov 9, 2025at HOU29 − 36L
Nov 2, 2025at LV30 − 29W
Oct 19, 2025vs LAR7 − 35L
Oct 12, 2025vs SEA12 − 20L
Oct 6, 2025vs KC31 − 28W
Sep 28, 2025at SF26 − 21W
Sep 21, 2025vs HOU17 − 10W
Sep 14, 2025at CIN27 − 31L

TEN · Last 10

1−9 · streak L6
Nov 23, 2025vs SEA24 − 30L
Nov 16, 2025vs HOU13 − 16L
Nov 2, 2025vs LAC20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at IND14 − 38L
Oct 19, 2025vs NE13 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025at LV10 − 20L
Oct 5, 2025at ARI22 − 21W
Sep 28, 2025at HOU0 − 26L
Sep 21, 2025vs IND20 − 41L
Sep 14, 2025vs LAR19 − 33L