bayesRatings

Titans at 49ers

NFL · Sunday, Dec 14 · 3:25 PM CT · Levi's Stadium · Final TEN 24 – SF 37
← NFL / Dec 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TEN3701424
SF71014637
Team box
TEN·SF
306
total yards
430
170
passing yards
292
136
rushing yards
138
18
first downs
28
3-9
third downs
9-15
0
turnovers
1
22:55
time of possession
37:05
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Cam WardTEN18/2917020
Brock PurdySF23/3029530
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Tony PollardTEN141041
Christian McCaffreySF22731
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Gunnar HelmTEN4491
Ricky PearsallSF6960

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +21
TEN +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SF 21 · TEN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TEN 15%, SF 85% · Updated Dec 14, 2025

Expected margin
SF by 14.7
Expected score
SF 29.2 – 14.5 TEN
Expected total
43.7
TitansThe matchup49ers
+552Our fair odds−552
14.5Expected points29.2
−1.22Power rating+0.34
15.5Points / game23.6
27.5Allowed / game20.7
246Total yards / game341
4.2Yards / play5.3
161Passing yards / game243
2−11Season record9−4
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TEN chance · SF chance
Our model fair15.3%84.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TENTennessee Titans+55215%————
SFSan Francisco 49ers−55285%————
SpreadSF by 14.7
TENTennessee Titans+14.7our margin————
SFSan Francisco 49ers−14.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.7
Over43.7our total————
Under43.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco 49ers by 14.7 expected
Tennessee Titans by 49 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 48 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 47 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 46 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 45 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 44 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 43 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 42 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 41 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 40 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 4%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 6%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 5%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 42 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 43 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 44 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 45 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 46 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 47 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 48 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 49 points: <1%
← TEN wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco 49ers wins by 3 or more81%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 7 or more68%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 10 or more60%
Within 3 points either way16%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.7 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.569%
Total over 43.548%
Total over 50.530%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TENCam Ward · last 3 games: 61% completions, 171 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted
SFBrock Purdy · last 3 games: 67% completions, 187 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TEN·SF
Dec 7, 2025 at CLE
last game
Nov 30, 2025 at CLE
6 days
days of rest
13 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
TEN·SF
−1.22
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
15.5
points / game
23.6
27.5
points allowed / game
20.7
2−11
season record
9−4
0−7
home record
3−2
2−4
away record
6−2
W1
streak
W3
2−8
last 10
6−4
246
total yards / game
341
4.2
yards / play
5.3
161
passing yards / game
243
85
rushing yards / game
99
14.8
first downs / game
21.7
1.3
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

TEN · SF · 42 days
Tennessee TitansSan Francisco 49ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · SF 0−1
Dec 23, 2021at TENTEN 20 − 17

TEN · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Dec 7, 2025at CLE31 − 29W
Nov 30, 2025vs JAX3 − 25L
Nov 23, 2025vs SEA24 − 30L
Nov 16, 2025vs HOU13 − 16L
Nov 2, 2025vs LAC20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025at IND14 − 38L
Oct 19, 2025vs NE13 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025at LV10 − 20L
Oct 5, 2025at ARI22 − 21W
Sep 28, 2025at HOU0 − 26L

SF · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Nov 30, 2025at CLE26 − 8W
Nov 24, 2025vs CAR20 − 9W
Nov 16, 2025at ARI41 − 22W
Nov 9, 2025vs LAR26 − 42L
Nov 2, 2025at NYG34 − 24W
Oct 26, 2025at HOU15 − 26L
Oct 19, 2025vs ATL20 − 10W
Oct 12, 2025at TB19 − 30L
Oct 2, 2025at LAR26 − 23W
Sep 28, 2025vs JAX21 − 26L