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Colts at Seahawks

NFL · Sunday, Dec 14 · 3:25 PM CT · Lumen Field · Final IND 16 – SEA 18
← NFL / Dec 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND3100316
SEA333918
Team box
IND·SEA
220
total yards
314
118
passing yards
264
102
rushing yards
50
14
first downs
15
5-13
third downs
2-13
1
turnovers
0
31:05
time of possession
28:55
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Philip RiversIND18/2712011
Sam DarnoldSEA22/3627100
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jonathan TaylorIND25870
Zach CharbonnetSEA8310
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Ameer AbdullahIND5320
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA71130

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +10
IND +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SEA 2 · IND 10lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 29%, SEA 71% · Updated Dec 14, 2025

Expected margin
SEA by 7.3
Expected score
SEA 27.9 – 20.7 IND
Expected total
48.6
ColtsThe matchupSeahawks
+248Our fair odds−248
20.7Expected points27.9
+0.26Power rating+0.96
28.9Points / game29.8
21.9Allowed / game17.4
368Total yards / game353
6.1Yards / play6.1
238Passing yards / game236
8−5Season record10−3
5−5Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · SEA chance
Our model fair28.7%71.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndianapolis Colts+24829%————
SEASeattle Seahawks−24871%————
SpreadSEA by 7.3
INDIndianapolis Colts+7.3our margin————
SEASeattle Seahawks−7.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.6
Over48.6our total————
Under48.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 7.3 expected
Indianapolis Colts by 46 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 45 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 44 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 43 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 42 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 41 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 40 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 39 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 6%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 7%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 41 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 42 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 43 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 44 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 45 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 46 points: <1%
← IND wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more63%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more48%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more40%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.6 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.567%
Total over 48.547%
Total over 55.531%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
INDPhilip Rivers · no recent games on recordstarted
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 61% completions, 207 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·SEA
Dec 7, 2025 at JAX
last game
Dec 7, 2025 at ATL
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
IND·SEA
+0.26
rating (0 = average)
+0.96
28.9
points / game
29.8
21.9
points allowed / game
17.4
8−5
season record
10−3
6−1
home record
4−2
2−4
away record
6−1
L3
streak
W3
5−5
last 10
8−2
368
total yards / game
353
6.1
yards / play
6.1
238
passing yards / game
236
131
rushing yards / game
118
21.8
first downs / game
20.1
1.2
turnovers / game
1.8

Rating Trend

IND · SEA · 42 days
Indianapolis ColtsSeattle Seahawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · SEA 1−0
Sep 12, 2021at INDSEA 28 − 16

IND · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Dec 7, 2025at JAX19 − 36L
Nov 30, 2025vs HOU16 − 20L
Nov 23, 2025at KC20 − 23L
Nov 9, 2025vs ATL31 − 25W
Nov 2, 2025at PIT20 − 27L
Oct 26, 2025vs TEN38 − 14W
Oct 19, 2025at LAC38 − 24W
Oct 12, 2025vs ARI31 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs LV40 − 6W
Sep 28, 2025at LAR20 − 27L

SEA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Dec 7, 2025at ATL37 − 9W
Nov 30, 2025vs MIN26 − 0W
Nov 23, 2025at TEN30 − 24W
Nov 16, 2025at LAR19 − 21L
Nov 9, 2025vs ARI44 − 22W
Nov 2, 2025at WSH38 − 14W
Oct 20, 2025vs HOU27 − 19W
Oct 12, 2025at JAX20 − 12W
Oct 5, 2025vs TB35 − 38L
Sep 25, 2025at ARI23 − 20W