bayesRatings

Seahawks at Falcons

NFL · Sunday, Dec 7 · 12:00 PM CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Final SEA 37 – ATL 9
← NFL / Dec 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SEA33171437
ATL33039
Team box
SEA·ATL
365
total yards
274
236
passing yards
154
129
rushing yards
120
20
first downs
15
6-13
third downs
1-13
1
turnovers
3
31:20
time of possession
28:40
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Sam DarnoldSEA20/3024931
Kirk CousinsATL15/3016202
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Zach CharbonnetSEA7460
Bijan RobinsonATL20860
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA7922
Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL6900

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +28
SEA +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 3 · SEA 28lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 71%, ATL 29% · Updated Dec 7, 2025

Expected margin
SEA by 7.3
Expected score
SEA 26.3 – 19.1 ATL
Expected total
45.4
SeahawksThe matchupFalcons
−242Our fair odds+242
26.3Expected points19.1
+0.81Power rating−0.43
29.2Points / game20.2
18.1Allowed / game23.0
352Total yards / game335
6.1Yards / play5.4
236Passing yards / game211
9−3Season record4−8
8−2Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · ATL chance
Our model fair70.7%29.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Seahawks−24271%————
ATLAtlanta Falcons+24229%————
SpreadSEA by 7.3
SEASeattle Seahawks−7.3our margin————
ATLAtlanta Falcons+7.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.4
Over45.4our total————
Under45.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 7.3 expected
Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 5%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 5%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 8%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 5%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 40 points: <1%
← SEA wins byATL wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more66%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more49%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more41%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.4 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.567%
Total over 45.547%
Total over 52.529%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 61% completions, 217 yds/game, 2 TD, 4 INTstarted
ATLKirk Cousins · last 3 games: 61% completions, 160 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·ATL
Nov 30, 2025 vs MIN
last game
Nov 30, 2025 at NYJ
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
SEA·ATL
+0.81
rating (0 = average)
−0.43
29.2
points / game
20.2
18.1
points allowed / game
23.0
9−3
season record
4−8
4−2
home record
2−3
5−1
away record
2−5
W2
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
3−7
352
total yards / game
335
6.1
yards / play
5.4
236
passing yards / game
211
117
rushing yards / game
124
20.1
first downs / game
19.6
1.8
turnovers / game
0.9

Rating Trend

SEA · ATL · 39 days
Seattle SeahawksAtlanta Falcons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · ATL 1−1
Oct 20, 2024at ATLSEA 34 − 14
Sep 25, 2022at SEAATL 27 − 23

SEA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Nov 30, 2025vs MIN26 − 0W
Nov 23, 2025at TEN30 − 24W
Nov 16, 2025at LAR19 − 21L
Nov 9, 2025vs ARI44 − 22W
Nov 2, 2025at WSH38 − 14W
Oct 20, 2025vs HOU27 − 19W
Oct 12, 2025at JAX20 − 12W
Oct 5, 2025vs TB35 − 38L
Sep 25, 2025at ARI23 − 20W
Sep 21, 2025vs NO44 − 13W

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Nov 30, 2025at NYJ24 − 27L
Nov 23, 2025at NO24 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025vs CAR27 − 30L
Nov 9, 2025at IND25 − 31L
Nov 2, 2025at NE23 − 24L
Oct 26, 2025vs MIA10 − 34L
Oct 19, 2025at SF10 − 20L
Oct 13, 2025vs BUF24 − 14W
Sep 28, 2025vs WSH34 − 27W
Sep 21, 2025at CAR0 − 30L