bayesRatings

Rams at Seahawks

NFL · Sunday, Jan 25 · 5:30 PM CT · Lumen Field · Final LAR 27 – SEA 31
← NFL / Jan 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAR31014027
SEA10714031
Team box
LAR·SEA
479
total yards
396
365
passing yards
321
114
rushing yards
75
26
first downs
24
1-8
third downs
7-13
1
turnovers
0
28:10
time of possession
31:50
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Matthew StaffordLAR22/3537430
Sam DarnoldSEA25/3634630
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Blake CorumLAR9550
Kenneth Walker IIISEA19621
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Puka NacuaLAR91651
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA101531

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +11
LAR +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SEA 11 · LAR 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAR 35%, SEA 65% · Updated Jan 25

Expected margin
SEA by 4.3
Expected score
SEA 26.3 – 22.0 LAR
Expected total
48.3
RamsThe matchupSeahawks
+184Our fair odds−184
22.0Expected points26.3
+0.99Power rating+1.38
30.5Points / game28.4
20.4Allowed / game17.2
395Total yards / game351
6.1Yards / play6.0
268Passing yards / game228
12−5 · 2−0 postSeason record14−3 · 1−0 post
7−3Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAR chance · SEA chance
Our model fair35.2%64.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LARLos Angeles Rams+18435%————
SEASeattle Seahawks−18465%————
SpreadSEA by 4.3
LARLos Angeles Rams+4.3our margin————
SEASeattle Seahawks−4.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.3
Over48.3our total————
Under48.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 4.3 expected
Los Angeles Rams by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 7%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 41 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 42 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 43 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 44 points: <1%
← LAR wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more55%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more39%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more31%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.3 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: <1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.566%
Total over 48.546%
Total over 55.530%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 56% completions, 274 yds/game, 7 TD, 1 INTstarted
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 71% completions, 156 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAR·SEA
Jan 18 at CHI
last game
Jan 17 vs SF
6 days
days of rest
7 days
3rd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
LAR·SEA
+0.99
rating (0 = average)
+1.38
30.5
points / game
28.4
20.4
points allowed / game
17.2
12−5 · 2−0 post
season record
14−3 · 1−0 post
7−1
home record
6−2
5−4
away record
8−1
W3
streak
W8
7−3
last 10
9−1
395
total yards / game
351
6.1
yards / play
6.0
268
passing yards / game
228
127
rushing yards / game
123
23.3
first downs / game
20.0
0.9
turnovers / game
1.6

Rating Trend

LAR · SEA · 59 days
Los Angeles RamsSeattle Seahawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 4−6
Dec 18, 2025at SEASEA 38 − 37
Nov 16, 2025at LARLAR 21 − 19
Jan 5, 2025at LARSEA 30 − 25
Nov 3, 2024at SEALAR 26 − 20
Nov 19, 2023at LARLAR 17 − 16
Sep 10, 2023at SEALAR 30 − 13
Jan 8, 2023at SEASEA 19 − 16
Dec 4, 2022at LARSEA 27 − 23
Dec 21, 2021at LARLAR 20 − 10
Oct 7, 2021at SEALAR 26 − 17

LAR · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Jan 18at CHI20 − 17W
Jan 10at CAR34 − 31W
Jan 4vs ARI37 − 20W
Dec 29, 2025at ATL24 − 27L
Dec 18, 2025at SEA37 − 38L
Dec 14, 2025vs DET41 − 34W
Dec 7, 2025at ARI45 − 17W
Nov 30, 2025at CAR28 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs TB34 − 7W
Nov 16, 2025vs SEA21 − 19W

SEA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Jan 17vs SF41 − 6W
Jan 3at SF13 − 3W
Dec 28, 2025at CAR27 − 10W
Dec 18, 2025vs LAR38 − 37W
Dec 14, 2025vs IND18 − 16W
Dec 7, 2025at ATL37 − 9W
Nov 30, 2025vs MIN26 − 0W
Nov 23, 2025at TEN30 − 24W
Nov 16, 2025at LAR19 − 21L
Nov 9, 2025vs ARI44 − 22W