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Rams at Falcons

NFL · Monday, Dec 29 · 7:15 PM CT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Final LAR 24 – ATL 27
← NFL / Dec 29, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAR0017724
ATL7143327
Team box
LAR·ATL
363
total yards
345
248
passing yards
126
115
rushing yards
219
16
first downs
15
5-13
third downs
5-13
3
turnovers
0
30:15
time of possession
29:45
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Matthew StaffordLAR22/3826923
Kirk CousinsATL13/2012610
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kyren WilliamsLAR13920
Bijan RobinsonATL221951
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Xavier SmithLAR4670
David Sills VATL3370

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +21
LAR +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 21 · LAR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAR 76%, ATL 24% · Updated Dec 29, 2025

Expected margin
LAR by 9.7
Expected score
LAR 29.1 – 19.4 ATL
Expected total
48.5
RamsThe matchupFalcons
−325Our fair odds+325
29.1Expected points19.4
+1.12Power rating−0.37
30.5Points / game20.5
19.9Allowed / game24.0
397Total yards / game341
6.2Yards / play5.4
270Passing yards / game216
11−4Season record6−9
8−2Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAR chance · ATL chance
Our model fair76.5%23.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LARLos Angeles Rams−32576%————
ATLAtlanta Falcons+32524%————
SpreadLAR by 9.7
LARLos Angeles Rams−9.7our margin————
ATLAtlanta Falcons+9.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.5
Over48.5our total————
Under48.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 9.7 expected
Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 5%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 5%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 4%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 40 points: <1%
← LAR wins byATL wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more72%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more57%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more49%
Within 3 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.5 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: <1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.567%
Total over 48.547%
Total over 55.530%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 64% completions, 369 yds/game, 8 TD, 1 INTstarted
ATLKirk Cousins · last 3 games: 61% completions, 244 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAR·ATL
Dec 18, 2025 at SEA
last game
Dec 21, 2025 at ARI
10 days
days of rest
7 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
LAR·ATL
+1.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.37
30.5
points / game
20.5
19.9
points allowed / game
24.0
11−4
season record
6−9
6−1
home record
2−4
5−3
away record
4−5
L1
streak
W2
8−2
last 10
3−7
397
total yards / game
341
6.2
yards / play
5.4
270
passing yards / game
216
126
rushing yards / game
125
23.7
first downs / game
20.1
0.8
turnovers / game
1.1

Rating Trend

LAR · ATL · 51 days
Los Angeles RamsAtlanta Falcons
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · ATL 0−1
Sep 18, 2022at LARLAR 31 − 27

LAR · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Dec 18, 2025at SEA37 − 38L
Dec 14, 2025vs DET41 − 34W
Dec 7, 2025at ARI45 − 17W
Nov 30, 2025at CAR28 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs TB34 − 7W
Nov 16, 2025vs SEA21 − 19W
Nov 9, 2025at SF42 − 26W
Nov 2, 2025vs NO34 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025at JAX35 − 7W
Oct 12, 2025at BAL17 − 3W

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Dec 21, 2025at ARI26 − 19W
Dec 11, 2025at TB29 − 28W
Dec 7, 2025vs SEA9 − 37L
Nov 30, 2025at NYJ24 − 27L
Nov 23, 2025at NO24 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025vs CAR27 − 30L
Nov 9, 2025at IND25 − 31L
Nov 2, 2025at NE23 − 24L
Oct 26, 2025vs MIA10 − 34L
Oct 19, 2025at SF10 − 20L