bayesRatings

Rams at Seahawks

NFL · Thursday, Dec 18 · 7:15 PM CT · Lumen Field · Final LAR 37 – SEA 38
← NFL / Dec 18, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
LAR310107737
SEA70716838
Team box
LAR·SEA
581
total yards
415
457
passing yards
244
124
rushing yards
171
26
first downs
22
8-20
third downs
4-11
0
turnovers
3
40:33
time of possession
26:14
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Matthew StaffordLAR29/4945730
Sam DarnoldSEA22/3427022
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kyren WilliamsLAR23700
Kenneth Walker IIISEA111001
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Puka NacuaLAR122252
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA8961

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +16
LAR +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: SEA 7 · LAR 16lead changes: 6

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAR 46%, SEA 54% · Updated Dec 18, 2025

Expected margin
SEA by 1.5
Expected score
SEA 23.6 – 22.1 LAR
Expected total
45.8
RamsThe matchupSeahawks
+116Our fair odds−116
22.1Expected points23.6
+1.15Power rating+1.03
30.0Points / game28.9
18.6Allowed / game17.3
384Total yards / game351
6.2Yards / play6.1
257Passing yards / game238
11−3Season record11−3
8−2Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAR chance · SEA chance
Our model fair46.4%53.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LARLos Angeles Rams+11646%————
SEASeattle Seahawks−11654%————
SpreadSEA by 1.5
LARLos Angeles Rams+1.5our margin————
SEASeattle Seahawks−1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.8
Over45.8our total————
Under45.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 1.5 expected
Los Angeles Rams by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 8%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 7%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 41 points: <1%
← LAR wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more47%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more31%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.8 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 66% completions, 297 yds/game, 7 TD, 3 INTstarted
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 61% completions, 216 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAR·SEA
Dec 14, 2025 vs DET
last game
Dec 14, 2025 vs IND
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
LAR·SEA
+1.15
rating (0 = average)
+1.03
30.0
points / game
28.9
18.6
points allowed / game
17.3
11−3
season record
11−3
6−1
home record
5−2
5−2
away record
6−1
W2
streak
W4
8−2
last 10
8−2
384
total yards / game
351
6.2
yards / play
6.1
257
passing yards / game
238
126
rushing yards / game
113
23.5
first downs / game
19.7
0.9
turnovers / game
1.6

Rating Trend

LAR · SEA · 44 days
Los Angeles RamsSeattle Seahawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · SEA 3−6
Nov 16, 2025at LARLAR 21 − 19
Jan 5, 2025at LARSEA 30 − 25
Nov 3, 2024at SEALAR 26 − 20
Nov 19, 2023at LARLAR 17 − 16
Sep 10, 2023at SEALAR 30 − 13
Jan 8, 2023at SEASEA 19 − 16
Dec 4, 2022at LARSEA 27 − 23
Dec 21, 2021at LARLAR 20 − 10
Oct 7, 2021at SEALAR 26 − 17

LAR · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Dec 14, 2025vs DET41 − 34W
Dec 7, 2025at ARI45 − 17W
Nov 30, 2025at CAR28 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs TB34 − 7W
Nov 16, 2025vs SEA21 − 19W
Nov 9, 2025at SF42 − 26W
Nov 2, 2025vs NO34 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025at JAX35 − 7W
Oct 12, 2025at BAL17 − 3W
Oct 2, 2025vs SF23 − 26L

SEA · Last 10

8−2 · streak W4
Dec 14, 2025vs IND18 − 16W
Dec 7, 2025at ATL37 − 9W
Nov 30, 2025vs MIN26 − 0W
Nov 23, 2025at TEN30 − 24W
Nov 16, 2025at LAR19 − 21L
Nov 9, 2025vs ARI44 − 22W
Nov 2, 2025at WSH38 − 14W
Oct 20, 2025vs HOU27 − 19W
Oct 12, 2025at JAX20 − 12W
Oct 5, 2025vs TB35 − 38L