bayesRatings

Falcons at Cardinals

NFL · Sunday, Dec 21 · 3:05 PM CT · State Farm Stadium · Final ATL 26 – ARI 19
← NFL / Dec 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL3133726
ARI1060319
Team box
ATL·ARI
342
total yards
320
190
passing yards
188
152
rushing yards
132
24
first downs
16
7-14
third downs
7-13
2
turnovers
1
35:34
time of possession
24:26
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Kirk CousinsATL21/3519721
Jacoby BrissettARI16/3120311
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Tyler AllgeierATL16790
Michael CarterARI11650
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Bijan RobinsonATL7921
Elijah HigginsARI7910

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +10
ATL +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ARI 10 · ATL 10lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 43%, ARI 57% · Updated Dec 21, 2025

Expected margin
ARI by 1.7
Expected score
ARI 25.3 – 23.6 ATL
Expected total
48.9
FalconsThe matchupCardinals
+131Our fair odds−131
23.6Expected points25.3
−0.48Power rating−0.47
20.1Points / game21.6
24.4Allowed / game27.7
340Total yards / game333
5.5Yards / play5.1
218Passing yards / game238
5−9Season record3−11
3−7Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · ARI chance
Our model fair43.3%56.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Falcons+13143%————
ARIArizona Cardinals−13157%————
SpreadARI by 1.7
ATLAtlanta Falcons+1.7our margin————
ARIArizona Cardinals−1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 48.9
Over48.9our total————
Under48.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Cardinals by 1.7 expected
Atlanta Falcons by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 4%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 8%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 7%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 4%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 4%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 41 points: <1%
← ATL wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Cardinals wins by 3 or more48%
Arizona Cardinals wins by 7 or more32%
Arizona Cardinals wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

48.9 expected
14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 41.568%
Total over 48.548%
Total over 55.531%
Total from 42 to 5536%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ATLKirk Cousins · last 3 games: 62% completions, 256 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted
ARIJacoby Brissett · last 3 games: 65% completions, 274 yds/game, 7 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·ARI
Dec 11, 2025 at TB
last game
Dec 14, 2025 at HOU
9 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
ATL·ARI
−0.48
rating (0 = average)
−0.47
20.1
points / game
21.6
24.4
points allowed / game
27.7
5−9
season record
3−11
2−4
home record
1−6
3−5
away record
2−5
W1
streak
L6
3−7
last 10
1−9
340
total yards / game
333
5.5
yards / play
5.1
218
passing yards / game
238
123
rushing yards / game
95
19.8
first downs / game
20.5
1.1
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

ATL · ARI · 46 days
Atlanta FalconsArizona Cardinals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · ARI 1−1
Nov 12, 2023at ARIARI 25 − 23
Jan 1, 2023at ATLATL 20 − 19

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Dec 11, 2025at TB29 − 28W
Dec 7, 2025vs SEA9 − 37L
Nov 30, 2025at NYJ24 − 27L
Nov 23, 2025at NO24 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025vs CAR27 − 30L
Nov 9, 2025at IND25 − 31L
Nov 2, 2025at NE23 − 24L
Oct 26, 2025vs MIA10 − 34L
Oct 19, 2025at SF10 − 20L
Oct 13, 2025vs BUF24 − 14W

ARI · Last 10

1−9 · streak L6
Dec 14, 2025at HOU20 − 40L
Dec 7, 2025vs LAR17 − 45L
Nov 30, 2025at TB17 − 20L
Nov 23, 2025vs JAX24 − 27L
Nov 16, 2025vs SF22 − 41L
Nov 9, 2025at SEA22 − 44L
Nov 3, 2025at DAL27 − 17W
Oct 19, 2025vs GB23 − 27L
Oct 12, 2025at IND27 − 31L
Oct 5, 2025vs TEN21 − 22L