bayesRatings

Falcons at Buccaneers

NFL · Thursday, Dec 11 · 7:15 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium · Final ATL 29 – TB 28
← NFL / Dec 11, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL01401529
TB767828
Team box
ATL·TB
476
total yards
338
365
passing yards
250
111
rushing yards
88
27
first downs
28
5-11
third downs
4-9
1
turnovers
1
31:51
time of possession
28:09
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Kirk CousinsATL30/4437330
Baker MayfieldTB19/3427721
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bijan RobinsonATL19931
Bucky IrvingTB16600
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Kyle Pitts Sr.ATL111663
Mike EvansTB61320

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +14
ATL +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TB 14 · ATL 4lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 29%, TB 71% · Updated Dec 11, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 7.0
Expected score
TB 27.4 – 20.4 ATL
Expected total
47.9
FalconsThe matchupBuccaneers
+243Our fair odds−243
20.4Expected points27.4
−0.56Power rating+0.11
19.4Points / game23.0
24.1Allowed / game25.0
330Total yards / game315
5.4Yards / play5.0
206Passing yards / game200
4−9Season record7−6
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · TB chance
Our model fair29.1%70.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Falcons+24329%————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−24371%————
SpreadTB by 7.0
ATLAtlanta Falcons+7our margin————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−7our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.9
Over47.9our total————
Under47.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7.0 expected
Atlanta Falcons by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 6%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 7%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 39 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 40 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 41 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 42 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 43 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 44 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 45 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 46 points: <1%
← ATL wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 3 or more62%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 7 or more47%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 10 or more39%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.9 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.568%
Total over 47.548%
Total over 54.531%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ATLKirk Cousins · last 3 games: 60% completions, 198 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 53% completions, 119 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·TB
Dec 7, 2025 vs SEA
last game
Dec 7, 2025 vs NO
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
ATL·TB
−0.56
rating (0 = average)
+0.11
19.4
points / game
23.0
24.1
points allowed / game
25.0
4−9
season record
7−6
2−4
home record
3−3
2−5
away record
4−3
L2
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
4−6
330
total yards / game
315
5.4
yards / play
5.0
206
passing yards / game
200
124
rushing yards / game
115
19.2
first downs / game
18.6
1.1
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

ATL · TB · 41 days
Atlanta FalconsTampa Bay Buccaneers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · TB 5−4
Sep 7, 2025at ATLTB 23 − 20
Oct 27, 2024at TBATL 31 − 26
Oct 3, 2024at ATLATL 36 − 30
Dec 10, 2023at ATLTB 29 − 25
Oct 22, 2023at TBATL 16 − 13
Jan 8, 2023at ATLATL 30 − 17
Oct 9, 2022at TBTB 21 − 15
Dec 5, 2021at ATLTB 30 − 17
Sep 19, 2021at TBTB 48 − 25

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Dec 7, 2025vs SEA9 − 37L
Nov 30, 2025at NYJ24 − 27L
Nov 23, 2025at NO24 − 10W
Nov 16, 2025vs CAR27 − 30L
Nov 9, 2025at IND25 − 31L
Nov 2, 2025at NE23 − 24L
Oct 26, 2025vs MIA10 − 34L
Oct 19, 2025at SF10 − 20L
Oct 13, 2025vs BUF24 − 14W
Sep 28, 2025vs WSH34 − 27W

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Dec 7, 2025vs NO20 − 24L
Nov 30, 2025vs ARI20 − 17W
Nov 23, 2025at LAR7 − 34L
Nov 16, 2025at BUF32 − 44L
Nov 9, 2025vs NE23 − 28L
Oct 26, 2025at NO23 − 3W
Oct 20, 2025at DET9 − 24L
Oct 12, 2025vs SF30 − 19W
Oct 5, 2025at SEA38 − 35W
Sep 28, 2025vs PHI25 − 31L