bayesRatings

Saints at Buccaneers

NFL · Sunday, Dec 7 · 12:00 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium · Final NO 24 – TB 20
← NFL / Dec 7, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO7010724
TB737320
Team box
NO·TB
260
total yards
301
121
passing yards
122
139
rushing yards
179
16
first downs
19
5-11
third downs
3-13
1
turnovers
1
27:48
time of possession
32:12
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Tyler ShoughNO13/2014401
Baker MayfieldTB14/3012211
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Devin NealNO19701
Bucky IrvingTB15550
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Devaughn VeleNO3400
Chris Godwin Jr.TB5550

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +7
NO +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TB 3 · NO 7lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 20%, TB 80% · Updated Dec 7, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 10.8
Expected score
TB 27.7 – 16.9 NO
Expected total
44.6
SaintsThe matchupBuccaneers
+393Our fair odds−393
16.9Expected points27.7
−0.94Power rating+0.22
15.2Points / game23.2
24.6Allowed / game25.1
297Total yards / game316
4.8Yards / play5.1
206Passing yards / game206
2−10Season record7−5
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · TB chance
Our model fair20.3%79.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Saints+39320%————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−39380%————
SpreadTB by 10.8
NONew Orleans Saints+10.8our margin————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−10.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.6
Over44.6our total————
Under44.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10.8 expected
New Orleans Saints by 48 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 47 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 5%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 6%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 39 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 40 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 41 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 42 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 43 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 44 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 45 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 46 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 47 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 48 points: <1%
← NO wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 3 or more72%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 7 or more57%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 10 or more49%
Within 3 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.6 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.568%
Total over 44.548%
Total over 51.529%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NOTyler Shough · last 3 games: 69% completions, 255 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 57% completions, 136 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·TB
Nov 30, 2025 at MIA
last game
Nov 30, 2025 vs ARI
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 12+ games
NO·TB
−0.94
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
15.2
points / game
23.2
24.6
points allowed / game
25.1
2−10
season record
7−5
1−5
home record
3−2
1−5
away record
4−3
L2
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
5−5
297
total yards / game
316
4.8
yards / play
5.1
206
passing yards / game
206
91
rushing yards / game
110
18.4
first downs / game
18.6
1.6
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

NO · TB · 39 days
New Orleans SaintsTampa Bay Buccaneers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · TB 6−3
Oct 26, 2025at NOTB 23 − 3
Jan 5, 2025at TBTB 27 − 19
Oct 13, 2024at NOTB 51 − 27
Dec 31, 2023at TBNO 23 − 13
Oct 1, 2023at NOTB 26 − 9
Dec 5, 2022at TBTB 17 − 16
Sep 18, 2022at NOTB 20 − 10
Dec 19, 2021at TBNO 9 − 0
Oct 31, 2021at NONO 36 − 27

NO · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Nov 30, 2025at MIA17 − 21L
Nov 23, 2025vs ATL10 − 24L
Nov 9, 2025at CAR17 − 7W
Nov 2, 2025at LAR10 − 34L
Oct 26, 2025vs TB3 − 23L
Oct 19, 2025at CHI14 − 26L
Oct 12, 2025vs NE19 − 25L
Oct 5, 2025vs NYG26 − 14W
Sep 28, 2025at BUF19 − 31L
Sep 21, 2025at SEA13 − 44L

TB · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Nov 30, 2025vs ARI20 − 17W
Nov 23, 2025at LAR7 − 34L
Nov 16, 2025at BUF32 − 44L
Nov 9, 2025vs NE23 − 28L
Oct 26, 2025at NO23 − 3W
Oct 20, 2025at DET9 − 24L
Oct 12, 2025vs SF30 − 19W
Oct 5, 2025at SEA38 − 35W
Sep 28, 2025vs PHI25 − 31L
Sep 21, 2025vs NYJ29 − 27W