bayesRatings

Cardinals at Texans

NFL · Sunday, Dec 14 · 12:00 PM CT · Reliant Stadium · Final ARI 20 – HOU 40
← NFL / Dec 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ARI077620
HOU17671040
Team box
ARI·HOU
307
total yards
399
235
passing yards
256
72
rushing yards
143
22
first downs
23
5-12
third downs
7-13
2
turnovers
0
27:42
time of possession
32:18
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jacoby BrissettARI27/4024931
C.J. StroudHOU22/2926030
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Michael CarterARI14560
Jawhar JordanHOU151010
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Trey McBrideARI121342
Nico CollinsHOU3852

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
HOU +23
ARI +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: HOU 23 · ARI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 23%, HOU 77% · Updated Dec 14, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 10.2
Expected score
HOU 25.2 – 15.0 ARI
Expected total
40.3
CardinalsThe matchupTexans
+330Our fair odds−330
15.0Expected points25.2
−0.41Power rating+0.59
21.7Points / game21.8
26.8Allowed / game16.0
335Total yards / game322
5.2Yards / play5.0
239Passing yards / game217
3−10Season record8−5
1−9Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · HOU chance
Our model fair23.3%76.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Cardinals+33023%————
HOUHouston Texans−33077%————
SpreadHOU by 10.2
ARIArizona Cardinals+10.2our margin————
HOUHouston Texans−10.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.3
Over40.3our total————
Under40.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Texans by 10.2 expected
Arizona Cardinals by 48 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 47 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 46 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 45 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 44 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 43 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 42 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 41 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 5%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Houston Texans by 1 point: 2%Houston Texans by 2 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 6%Houston Texans by 4 points: 2%Houston Texans by 5 points: 2%Houston Texans by 6 points: 4%Houston Texans by 7 points: 4%Houston Texans by 8 points: 3%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 2%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 2%Houston Texans by 13 points: 2%Houston Texans by 14 points: 2%Houston Texans by 15 points: 1%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 4%Houston Texans by 18 points: 2%Houston Texans by 19 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 2%Houston Texans by 21 points: 2%Houston Texans by 22 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 2%Houston Texans by 24 points: 3%Houston Texans by 25 points: 1%Houston Texans by 26 points: 1%Houston Texans by 27 points: 1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 1%Houston Texans by 29 points: 1%Houston Texans by 30 points: 1%Houston Texans by 31 points: 2%Houston Texans by 32 points: 1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: 1%Houston Texans by 35 points: 1%Houston Texans by 36 points: 1%Houston Texans by 37 points: 1%Houston Texans by 38 points: 1%Houston Texans by 39 points: <1%Houston Texans by 40 points: <1%Houston Texans by 41 points: <1%Houston Texans by 42 points: <1%Houston Texans by 43 points: <1%Houston Texans by 44 points: <1%Houston Texans by 45 points: <1%Houston Texans by 46 points: <1%Houston Texans by 47 points: <1%Houston Texans by 48 points: <1%
← ARI wins byHOU wins by →
Houston Texans wins by 3 or more70%
Houston Texans wins by 7 or more56%
Houston Texans wins by 10 or more47%
Within 3 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.3 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.568%
Total over 40.548%
Total over 47.528%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ARIJacoby Brissett · last 3 games: 65% completions, 296 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 57% completions, 186 yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·HOU
Dec 7, 2025 vs LAR
last game
Dec 7, 2025 at KC
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
ARI·HOU
−0.41
rating (0 = average)
+0.59
21.7
points / game
21.8
26.8
points allowed / game
16.0
3−10
season record
8−5
1−6
home record
4−2
2−4
away record
4−3
L5
streak
W5
1−9
last 10
8−2
335
total yards / game
322
5.2
yards / play
5.0
239
passing yards / game
217
97
rushing yards / game
106
20.4
first downs / game
18.9
1.2
turnovers / game
0.8

Rating Trend

ARI · HOU · 42 days
Arizona CardinalsHouston Texans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · HOU 1−1
Nov 19, 2023at HOUHOU 21 − 16
Oct 24, 2021at ARIARI 31 − 5

ARI · Last 10

1−9 · streak L5
Dec 7, 2025vs LAR17 − 45L
Nov 30, 2025at TB17 − 20L
Nov 23, 2025vs JAX24 − 27L
Nov 16, 2025vs SF22 − 41L
Nov 9, 2025at SEA22 − 44L
Nov 3, 2025at DAL27 − 17W
Oct 19, 2025vs GB23 − 27L
Oct 12, 2025at IND27 − 31L
Oct 5, 2025vs TEN21 − 22L
Sep 25, 2025vs SEA20 − 23L

HOU · Last 10

8−2 · streak W5
Dec 7, 2025at KC20 − 10W
Nov 30, 2025at IND20 − 16W
Nov 20, 2025vs BUF23 − 19W
Nov 16, 2025at TEN16 − 13W
Nov 9, 2025vs JAX36 − 29W
Nov 2, 2025vs DEN15 − 18L
Oct 26, 2025vs SF26 − 15W
Oct 20, 2025at SEA19 − 27L
Oct 5, 2025at BAL44 − 10W
Sep 28, 2025vs TEN26 − 0W