bayesRatings

Seahawks at Panthers

NFL · Sunday, Dec 28 · 12:00 PM CT · Bank of America Stadium · Final SEA 27 – CAR 10
← NFL / Dec 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SEA30141027
CAR030710
Team box
SEA·CAR
288
total yards
139
125
passing yards
40
163
rushing yards
99
19
first downs
10
9-16
third downs
1-11
2
turnovers
2
34:18
time of possession
25:42
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Sam DarnoldSEA18/2714711
Bryce YoungCAR14/245401
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Zach CharbonnetSEA181102
Rico DowdleCAR12590
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA9720
Jalen CokerCAR2160

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +17
SEA +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CAR 0 · SEA 17lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 77%, CAR 23% · Updated Dec 28, 2025

Expected margin
SEA by 10.2
Expected score
SEA 27.1 – 16.9 CAR
Expected total
44.0
SeahawksThe matchupPanthers
−331Our fair odds+331
27.1Expected points16.9
+1.13Power rating−0.38
29.5Points / game19.1
18.6Allowed / game22.5
355Total yards / game307
6.1Yards / play5.0
238Passing yards / game183
12−3Season record8−7
9−1Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · CAR chance
Our model fair76.8%23.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Seahawks−33177%————
CARCarolina Panthers+33123%————
SpreadSEA by 10.2
SEASeattle Seahawks−10.2our margin————
CARCarolina Panthers+10.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.0
Over44.0our total————
Under44.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 10.2 expected
Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 5%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 5%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 7%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 1%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 4%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 39 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 40 points: <1%
← SEA wins byCAR wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more73%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more58%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more51%
Within 3 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.0 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.566%
Total over 44.546%
Total over 51.528%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 64% completions, 263 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 67% completions, 187 yds/game, 6 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·CAR
Dec 18, 2025 vs LAR
last game
Dec 21, 2025 vs TB
9 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
SEA·CAR
+1.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.38
29.5
points / game
19.1
18.6
points allowed / game
22.5
12−3
season record
8−7
6−2
home record
5−2
6−1
away record
3−5
W5
streak
W1
9−1
last 10
6−4
355
total yards / game
307
6.1
yards / play
5.0
238
passing yards / game
183
117
rushing yards / game
124
19.9
first downs / game
18.7
1.7
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

SEA · CAR · 50 days
Seattle SeahawksCarolina Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · CAR 1−1
Sep 24, 2023at SEASEA 37 − 27
Dec 11, 2022at SEACAR 30 − 24

SEA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W5
Dec 18, 2025vs LAR38 − 37W
Dec 14, 2025vs IND18 − 16W
Dec 7, 2025at ATL37 − 9W
Nov 30, 2025vs MIN26 − 0W
Nov 23, 2025at TEN30 − 24W
Nov 16, 2025at LAR19 − 21L
Nov 9, 2025vs ARI44 − 22W
Nov 2, 2025at WSH38 − 14W
Oct 20, 2025vs HOU27 − 19W
Oct 12, 2025at JAX20 − 12W

CAR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 21, 2025vs TB23 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025at NO17 − 20L
Nov 30, 2025vs LAR31 − 28W
Nov 24, 2025at SF9 − 20L
Nov 16, 2025at ATL30 − 27W
Nov 9, 2025vs NO7 − 17L
Nov 2, 2025at GB16 − 13W
Oct 26, 2025vs BUF9 − 40L
Oct 19, 2025at NYJ13 − 6W
Oct 12, 2025vs DAL30 − 27W