bayesRatings

Buccaneers at Panthers

NFL · Sunday, Dec 21 · 12:00 PM CT · Bank of America Stadium · Final TB 20 – CAR 23
← NFL / Dec 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TB737320
CAR3107323
Team box
TB·CAR
296
total yards
275
127
passing yards
174
169
rushing yards
101
20
first downs
16
8-14
third downs
6-12
1
turnovers
0
34:36
time of possession
25:24
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Baker MayfieldTB18/2614511
Bryce YoungCAR21/3219120
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bucky IrvingTB19710
Rico DowdleCAR9290
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Emeka EgbukaTB1400
Tetairoa McMillanCAR6731

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +7
TB +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CAR 3 · TB 7lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 56%, CAR 44% · Updated Dec 21, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 2.7
Expected score
TB 24.4 – 21.7 CAR
Expected total
46.1
BuccaneersThe matchupPanthers
−127Our fair odds+127
24.4Expected points21.7
+0.03Power rating−0.49
23.4Points / game18.9
25.3Allowed / game22.6
317Total yards / game309
5.1Yards / play5.0
203Passing yards / game183
7−7Season record7−7
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · CAR chance
Our model fair56.0%44.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−12756%————
CARCarolina Panthers+12744%————
SpreadTB by 2.7
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−2.7our margin————
CARCarolina Panthers+2.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.1
Over46.1our total————
Under46.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2.7 expected
Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 5%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 9%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 2%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 7%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 4%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%
← TB wins byCAR wins by →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 3 or more54%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 7 or more35%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 10 or more27%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.1 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.566%
Total over 46.546%
Total over 53.529%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 55% completions, 198 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 66% completions, 179 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·CAR
Dec 11, 2025 vs ATL
last game
Dec 14, 2025 at NO
9 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
TB·CAR
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.49
23.4
points / game
18.9
25.3
points allowed / game
22.6
7−7
season record
7−7
3−4
home record
4−2
4−3
away record
3−5
L2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
317
total yards / game
309
5.1
yards / play
5.0
203
passing yards / game
183
113
rushing yards / game
126
19.3
first downs / game
18.9
0.8
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

TB · CAR · 46 days
Tampa Bay BuccaneersCarolina Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CAR 1−7
Dec 29, 2024at TBTB 48 − 14
Dec 1, 2024at CARTB 26 − 23
Jan 7, 2024at CARTB 9 − 0
Dec 3, 2023at TBTB 21 − 18
Jan 1, 2023at TBTB 30 − 24
Oct 23, 2022at CARCAR 21 − 3
Jan 9, 2022at TBTB 41 − 17
Dec 26, 2021at CARTB 32 − 6

TB · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Dec 11, 2025vs ATL28 − 29L
Dec 7, 2025vs NO20 − 24L
Nov 30, 2025vs ARI20 − 17W
Nov 23, 2025at LAR7 − 34L
Nov 16, 2025at BUF32 − 44L
Nov 9, 2025vs NE23 − 28L
Oct 26, 2025at NO23 − 3W
Oct 20, 2025at DET9 − 24L
Oct 12, 2025vs SF30 − 19W
Oct 5, 2025at SEA38 − 35W

CAR · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Dec 14, 2025at NO17 − 20L
Nov 30, 2025vs LAR31 − 28W
Nov 24, 2025at SF9 − 20L
Nov 16, 2025at ATL30 − 27W
Nov 9, 2025vs NO7 − 17L
Nov 2, 2025at GB16 − 13W
Oct 26, 2025vs BUF9 − 40L
Oct 19, 2025at NYJ13 − 6W
Oct 12, 2025vs DAL30 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs MIA27 − 24W