bayesRatings

Panthers at Saints

NFL · Sunday, Dec 14 · 3:25 PM CT · Caesars Superdome · Final CAR 17 – NO 20
← NFL / Dec 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CAR737017
NO0731020
Team box
CAR·NO
281
total yards
337
154
passing yards
256
127
rushing yards
81
15
first downs
27
7-14
third downs
6-11
1
turnovers
0
28:16
time of possession
31:44
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bryce YoungCAR15/2416310
Tyler ShoughNO24/3227210
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Rico DowdleCAR16491
Tyler ShoughNO8320
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jalen CokerCAR4601
Chris OlaveNO6851

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +10
CAR +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 3 · CAR 10lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CAR 52%, NO 48% · Updated Dec 14, 2025

Expected margin
NO by 0.8
Expected score
NO 19.4 – 18.7 CAR
Expected total
38.1
PanthersThe matchupSaints
−109Our fair odds+109
18.7Expected points19.4
−0.41Power rating−0.77
19.0Points / game15.8
22.8Allowed / game24.2
311Total yards / game294
5.0Yards / play4.8
186Passing yards / game199
7−6Season record3−10
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CAR chance · NO chance
Our model fair52.2%47.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CARCarolina Panthers−10952%————
NONew Orleans Saints+10948%————
SpreadNO by 0.8
CARCarolina Panthers+0.8our margin————
NONew Orleans Saints−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 38.1
Over38.1our total————
Under38.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New Orleans Saints by 0.8 expected
Carolina Panthers by 40 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 39 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 5%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 9%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 7%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 40 points: <1%
← CAR wins byNO wins by →
New Orleans Saints wins by 3 or more45%
New Orleans Saints wins by 7 or more29%
New Orleans Saints wins by 10 or more22%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

38.1 expected
5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 31.568%
Total over 38.547%
Total over 45.527%
Total from 32 to 4541%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 68% completions, 274 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted
NOTyler Shough · last 3 games: 68% completions, 209 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CAR·NO
Nov 30, 2025 vs LAR
last game
Dec 7, 2025 at TB
13 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
CAR·NO
−0.41
rating (0 = average)
−0.77
19.0
points / game
15.8
22.8
points allowed / game
24.2
7−6
season record
3−10
4−2
home record
1−5
3−4
away record
2−5
W1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
3−7
311
total yards / game
294
5.0
yards / play
4.8
186
passing yards / game
199
125
rushing yards / game
94
19.2
first downs / game
18.2
1.3
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

CAR · NO · 42 days
Carolina PanthersNew Orleans Saints
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NO 5−4
Nov 9, 2025at CARNO 17 − 7
Nov 3, 2024at CARCAR 23 − 22
Sep 8, 2024at NONO 47 − 10
Dec 10, 2023at NONO 28 − 6
Sep 18, 2023at CARNO 20 − 17
Jan 8, 2023at NOCAR 10 − 7
Sep 25, 2022at CARCAR 22 − 14
Jan 2, 2022at NONO 18 − 10
Sep 19, 2021at CARCAR 26 − 7

CAR · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Nov 30, 2025vs LAR31 − 28W
Nov 24, 2025at SF9 − 20L
Nov 16, 2025at ATL30 − 27W
Nov 9, 2025vs NO7 − 17L
Nov 2, 2025at GB16 − 13W
Oct 26, 2025vs BUF9 − 40L
Oct 19, 2025at NYJ13 − 6W
Oct 12, 2025vs DAL30 − 27W
Oct 5, 2025vs MIA27 − 24W
Sep 28, 2025at NE13 − 42L

NO · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Dec 7, 2025at TB24 − 20W
Nov 30, 2025at MIA17 − 21L
Nov 23, 2025vs ATL10 − 24L
Nov 9, 2025at CAR17 − 7W
Nov 2, 2025at LAR10 − 34L
Oct 26, 2025vs TB3 − 23L
Oct 19, 2025at CHI14 − 26L
Oct 12, 2025vs NE19 − 25L
Oct 5, 2025vs NYG26 − 14W
Sep 28, 2025at BUF19 − 31L