bayesRatings

Rams at Bears

NFL · Sunday, Jan 18 · 5:30 PM CT · Soldier Field · Final LAR 20 – CHI 17
← NFL / Jan 18

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234OTT
LAR7307320
CHI01007017
Team box
LAR·CHI
340
total yards
417
229
passing yards
257
111
rushing yards
160
22
first downs
23
5-16
third downs
9-19
0
turnovers
3
32:26
time of possession
39:15
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Matthew StaffordLAR20/4225800
Caleb WilliamsCHI23/4225723
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kyren WilliamsLAR21872
D'Andre SwiftCHI19760
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Colby ParkinsonLAR3560
Colston LovelandCHI4560

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +7
LAR +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
largest lead: CHI 3 · LAR 7lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAR 61%, CHI 39% · Updated Jan 18

Expected margin
LAR by 5.7
Expected score
LAR 29.5 – 23.8 CHI
Expected total
53.3
RamsThe matchupBears
−157Our fair odds+157
29.5Expected points23.8
+0.97Power rating+0.25
30.5Points / game25.9
20.4Allowed / game24.4
395Total yards / game370
6.1Yards / play5.7
268Passing yards / game225
12−5 · 1−0 postSeason record11−6 · 1−0 post
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAR chance · CHI chance
Our model fair61.2%38.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LARLos Angeles Rams−15761%————
CHIChicago Bears+15739%————
SpreadLAR by 5.7
LARLos Angeles Rams−5.7our margin————
CHIChicago Bears+5.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 53.3
Over53.3our total————
Under53.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 5.7 expected
Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 5%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 9%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 6%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 11 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 39 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 40 points: <1%
← LAR wins byCHI wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more62%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more44%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more36%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

53.3 expected
17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 46.565%
Total over 53.547%
Total over 60.531%
Total from 47 to 6034%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 59% completions, 277 yds/game, 9 TD, 4 INTstarted
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 56% completions, 301 yds/game, 6 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAR·CHI
Jan 10 at CAR
last game
Jan 10 vs GB
7 days
days of rest
7 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
LAR·CHI
+0.97
rating (0 = average)
+0.25
30.5
points / game
25.9
20.4
points allowed / game
24.4
12−5 · 1−0 post
season record
11−6 · 1−0 post
7−1
home record
6−2
5−4
away record
5−4
W2
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
7−3
395
total yards / game
370
6.1
yards / play
5.7
268
passing yards / game
225
127
rushing yards / game
144
23.3
first downs / game
21.1
0.9
turnovers / game
0.6

Rating Trend

LAR · CHI · 58 days
Los Angeles RamsChicago Bears
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · CHI 1−1
Sep 29, 2024at CHICHI 24 − 18
Sep 12, 2021at LARLAR 34 − 14

LAR · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Jan 10at CAR34 − 31W
Jan 4vs ARI37 − 20W
Dec 29, 2025at ATL24 − 27L
Dec 18, 2025at SEA37 − 38L
Dec 14, 2025vs DET41 − 34W
Dec 7, 2025at ARI45 − 17W
Nov 30, 2025at CAR28 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs TB34 − 7W
Nov 16, 2025vs SEA21 − 19W
Nov 9, 2025at SF42 − 26W

CHI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jan 10vs GB31 − 27W
Jan 4vs DET16 − 19L
Dec 28, 2025at SF38 − 42L
Dec 20, 2025vs GB22 − 16W
Dec 14, 2025vs CLE31 − 3W
Dec 7, 2025at GB21 − 28L
Nov 28, 2025at PHI24 − 15W
Nov 23, 2025vs PIT31 − 28W
Nov 16, 2025at MIN19 − 17W
Nov 9, 2025vs NYG24 − 20W