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Cardinals at Rams

NFL · Sunday, Jan 4 · 3:25 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · Final ARI 20 – LAR 37
← NFL / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ARI3314020
LAR31371437
Team box
ARI·LAR
317
total yards
395
238
passing yards
252
79
rushing yards
143
17
first downs
25
4-11
third downs
9-16
2
turnovers
0
27:49
time of possession
32:11
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jacoby BrissettARI22/3124321
Matthew StaffordLAR25/4025940
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Emari DemercadoARI2290
Kyren WilliamsLAR12600
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Michael WilsonARI5991
Tyler HigbeeLAR5911

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAR +17
ARI +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAR 17 · ARI 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 15%, LAR 85% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
LAR by 13.9
Expected score
LAR 33.6 – 19.8 ARI
Expected total
53.4
CardinalsThe matchupRams
+562Our fair odds−562
19.8Expected points33.6
−0.66Power rating+0.94
20.9Points / game30.1
28.2Allowed / game20.4
326Total yards / game395
5.1Yards / play6.2
232Passing yards / game269
3−13Season record11−5
1−9Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · LAR chance
Our model fair15.1%84.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Cardinals+56215%————
LARLos Angeles Rams−56285%————
SpreadLAR by 13.9
ARIArizona Cardinals+13.9our margin————
LARLos Angeles Rams−13.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 53.4
Over53.4our total————
Under53.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 13.9 expected
Arizona Cardinals by 49 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 48 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 47 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 46 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 45 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 44 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 43 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 42 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 41 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 4%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 6%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 5%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 41 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 42 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 48 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 49 points: <1%
← ARI wins byLAR wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more79%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more66%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more57%
Within 3 points either way16%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

53.4 expected
18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 46.565%
Total over 53.548%
Total over 60.532%
Total from 47 to 6034%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ARIJacoby Brissett · last 3 games: 59% completions, 221 yds/game, 6 TD, 2 INTstarted
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 60% completions, 365 yds/game, 7 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·LAR
Dec 28, 2025 at CIN
last game
Dec 29, 2025 at ATL
6 days
days of rest
5 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
ARI·LAR
−0.66
rating (0 = average)
+0.94
20.9
points / game
30.1
28.2
points allowed / game
20.4
3−13
season record
11−5
1−7
home record
6−1
2−6
away record
5−4
L8
streak
L2
1−9
last 10
7−3
326
total yards / game
395
5.1
yards / play
6.2
232
passing yards / game
269
94
rushing yards / game
126
19.7
first downs / game
23.2
1.2
turnovers / game
0.9

Rating Trend

ARI · LAR · 53 days
Arizona CardinalsLos Angeles Rams
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAR 7−3
Dec 7, 2025at ARILAR 45 − 17
Dec 28, 2024at LARLAR 13 − 9
Sep 15, 2024at ARIARI 41 − 10
Nov 26, 2023at ARILAR 37 − 14
Oct 15, 2023at LARLAR 26 − 9
Nov 13, 2022at LARARI 27 − 17
Sep 25, 2022at ARILAR 20 − 12
Jan 17, 2022at LARLAR 34 − 11post
Dec 13, 2021at ARILAR 30 − 23
Oct 3, 2021at LARARI 37 − 20

ARI · Last 10

1−9 · streak L8
Dec 28, 2025at CIN14 − 37L
Dec 21, 2025vs ATL19 − 26L
Dec 14, 2025at HOU20 − 40L
Dec 7, 2025vs LAR17 − 45L
Nov 30, 2025at TB17 − 20L
Nov 23, 2025vs JAX24 − 27L
Nov 16, 2025vs SF22 − 41L
Nov 9, 2025at SEA22 − 44L
Nov 3, 2025at DAL27 − 17W
Oct 19, 2025vs GB23 − 27L

LAR · Last 10

7−3 · streak L2
Dec 29, 2025at ATL24 − 27L
Dec 18, 2025at SEA37 − 38L
Dec 14, 2025vs DET41 − 34W
Dec 7, 2025at ARI45 − 17W
Nov 30, 2025at CAR28 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs TB34 − 7W
Nov 16, 2025vs SEA21 − 19W
Nov 9, 2025at SF42 − 26W
Nov 2, 2025vs NO34 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025at JAX35 − 7W