bayesRatings

Cardinals at Bengals

NFL · Sunday, Dec 28 · 12:00 PM CT · Paycor Stadium · Final ARI 14 – CIN 37
← NFL / Dec 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ARI070714
CIN71614037
Team box
ARI·CIN
233
total yards
429
191
passing yards
309
42
rushing yards
120
12
first downs
29
3-13
third downs
10-15
0
turnovers
0
19:04
time of possession
40:56
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jacoby BrissettARI21/3721220
Joe BurrowCIN24/3130520
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Michael CarterARI7290
Chase BrownCIN221012
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Michael WilsonARI5891
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN7602

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +30
ARI +30
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CIN 30 · ARI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 40%, CIN 60% · Updated Dec 28, 2025

Expected margin
CIN by 1.7
Expected score
CIN 29.6 – 27.9 ARI
Expected total
57.5
CardinalsThe matchupBengals
+150Our fair odds−150
27.9Expected points29.6
−0.54Power rating−0.36
21.4Points / game23.9
27.6Allowed / game30.5
333Total yards / game320
5.2Yards / play5.2
235Passing yards / game232
3−12Season record5−10
1−9Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · CIN chance
Our model fair40.1%59.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Cardinals+15040%————
CINCincinnati Bengals−15060%————
SpreadCIN by 1.7
ARIArizona Cardinals+1.7our margin————
CINCincinnati Bengals−1.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 57.5
Over57.5our total————
Under57.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cincinnati Bengals by 1.7 expected
Arizona Cardinals by 41 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 4%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 8%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 7%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 39 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 40 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 41 points: <1%
← ARI wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 3 or more48%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 7 or more32%
Cincinnati Bengals wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

57.5 expected
21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: <1%27 points: <1%28 points: <1%29 points: <1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 1%38 points: 1%39 points: 1%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 2%44 points: 2%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 2%68 points: 2%69 points: 2%70 points: 2%71 points: 2%72 points: 2%73 points: 2%74 points: 2%75 points: 2%76 points: 2%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: 1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: 1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%97 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 50.565%
Total over 57.549%
Total over 64.533%
Total from 51 to 6432%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ARIJacoby Brissett · last 3 games: 59% completions, 241 yds/game, 6 TD, 3 INTstarted
CINJoe Burrow · last 3 games: 70% completions, 273 yds/game, 8 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·CIN
Dec 21, 2025 vs ATL
last game
Dec 21, 2025 at MIA
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
ARI·CIN
−0.54
rating (0 = average)
−0.36
21.4
points / game
23.9
27.6
points allowed / game
30.5
3−12
season record
5−10
1−7
home record
2−5
2−5
away record
3−5
L7
streak
W1
1−9
last 10
3−7
333
total yards / game
320
5.2
yards / play
5.2
235
passing yards / game
232
97
rushing yards / game
89
20.2
first downs / game
19.9
1.3
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

ARI · CIN · 50 days
Arizona CardinalsCincinnati Bengals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · CIN 1−0
Oct 8, 2023at ARICIN 34 − 20

ARI · Last 10

1−9 · streak L7
Dec 21, 2025vs ATL19 − 26L
Dec 14, 2025at HOU20 − 40L
Dec 7, 2025vs LAR17 − 45L
Nov 30, 2025at TB17 − 20L
Nov 23, 2025vs JAX24 − 27L
Nov 16, 2025vs SF22 − 41L
Nov 9, 2025at SEA22 − 44L
Nov 3, 2025at DAL27 − 17W
Oct 19, 2025vs GB23 − 27L
Oct 12, 2025at IND27 − 31L

CIN · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Dec 21, 2025at MIA45 − 21W
Dec 14, 2025vs BAL0 − 24L
Dec 7, 2025at BUF34 − 39L
Nov 27, 2025at BAL32 − 14W
Nov 23, 2025vs NE20 − 26L
Nov 16, 2025at PIT12 − 34L
Nov 2, 2025vs CHI42 − 47L
Oct 26, 2025vs NYJ38 − 39L
Oct 16, 2025vs PIT33 − 31W
Oct 12, 2025at GB18 − 27L