bayesRatings

Bengals at Dolphins

NFL · Sunday, Dec 21 · 12:00 PM CT · Hard Rock Stadium · Final CIN 45 – MIA 21
← NFL / Dec 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CIN71021745
MIA770721
Team box
CIN·MIA
407
total yards
389
302
passing yards
260
105
rushing yards
129
23
first downs
19
6-12
third downs
2-10
0
turnovers
3
31:32
time of possession
28:28
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Joe BurrowCIN25/3230940
Quinn EwersMIA20/3026002
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Chase BrownCIN12661
De'Von AchaneMIA15811
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN91090
Jaylen WaddleMIA5720

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +31
CIN +31
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 4 · CIN 31lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 36%, MIA 64% · Updated Dec 21, 2025

Expected margin
MIA by 4.9
Expected score
MIA 27.1 – 22.2 CIN
Expected total
49.4
BengalsThe matchupDolphins
+177Our fair odds−177
22.2Expected points27.1
−0.53Power rating−0.21
22.4Points / game21.1
31.2Allowed / game23.1
314Total yards / game303
5.1Yards / play5.5
227Passing yards / game181
4−10Season record6−8
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · MIA chance
Our model fair36.2%63.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Bengals+17736%————
MIAMiami Dolphins−17764%————
SpreadMIA by 4.9
CINCincinnati Bengals+4.9our margin————
MIAMiami Dolphins−4.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 49.4
Over49.4our total————
Under49.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Miami Dolphins by 4.9 expected
Cincinnati Bengals by 44 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 43 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 42 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 41 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 40 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 39 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 7%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 2%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 7%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 39 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 40 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 41 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 42 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 43 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 44 points: <1%
← CIN wins byMIA wins by →
Miami Dolphins wins by 3 or more57%
Miami Dolphins wins by 7 or more41%
Miami Dolphins wins by 10 or more33%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

49.4 expected
15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 42.566%
Total over 49.547%
Total over 56.531%
Total from 43 to 5636%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CINJoe Burrow · last 3 games: 61% completions, 257 yds/game, 6 TD, 4 INTstarted
MIAQuinn Ewers · last 1 game: 62% completions, 53 yds/game, 0 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·MIA
Dec 14, 2025 vs BAL
last game
Dec 15, 2025 at PIT
6 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
CIN·MIA
−0.53
rating (0 = average)
−0.21
22.4
points / game
21.1
31.2
points allowed / game
23.1
4−10
season record
6−8
2−5
home record
4−3
2−5
away record
2−5
L2
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
5−5
314
total yards / game
303
5.1
yards / play
5.5
227
passing yards / game
181
87
rushing yards / game
122
19.7
first downs / game
17.6
1.6
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

CIN · MIA · 46 days
Cincinnati BengalsMiami Dolphins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · MIA 0−1
Sep 29, 2022at CINCIN 27 − 15

CIN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Dec 14, 2025vs BAL0 − 24L
Dec 7, 2025at BUF34 − 39L
Nov 27, 2025at BAL32 − 14W
Nov 23, 2025vs NE20 − 26L
Nov 16, 2025at PIT12 − 34L
Nov 2, 2025vs CHI42 − 47L
Oct 26, 2025vs NYJ38 − 39L
Oct 16, 2025vs PIT33 − 31W
Oct 12, 2025at GB18 − 27L
Oct 5, 2025vs DET24 − 37L

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 15, 2025at PIT15 − 28L
Dec 7, 2025at NYJ34 − 10W
Nov 30, 2025vs NO21 − 17W
Nov 16, 2025vs WSH16 − 13W
Nov 9, 2025vs BUF30 − 13W
Oct 30, 2025vs BAL6 − 28L
Oct 26, 2025at ATL34 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025at CLE6 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025vs LAC27 − 29L
Oct 5, 2025at CAR24 − 27L