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Rams at Panthers

NFL · Saturday, Jan 10 · 3:30 PM CT · Bank of America Stadium · Final LAR 34 – CAR 31
← NFL / Jan 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAR71031434
CAR01431431
Team box
LAR·CAR
411
total yards
333
295
passing yards
250
116
rushing yards
83
21
first downs
21
3-13
third downs
5-12
1
turnovers
2
31:46
time of possession
28:14
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Matthew StaffordLAR24/4230431
Bryce YoungCAR21/4026411
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kyren WilliamsLAR13570
Chuba HubbardCAR13462
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Puka NacuaLAR101111
Jalen CokerCAR91341

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +14
LAR +14
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CAR 4 · LAR 14lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAR 75%, CAR 25% · Updated Jan 10

Expected margin
LAR by 10.7
Expected score
LAR 28.5 – 17.8 CAR
Expected total
46.3
RamsThe matchupPanthers
−302Our fair odds+302
28.5Expected points17.8
+0.95Power rating−0.46
30.5Points / game18.3
20.4Allowed / game22.4
395Total yards / game296
6.1Yards / play4.9
268Passing yards / game179
12−5Season record8−9
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAR chance · CAR chance
Our model fair75.1%24.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LARLos Angeles Rams−30275%————
CARCarolina Panthers+30225%————
SpreadLAR by 10.7
LARLos Angeles Rams−10.7our margin————
CARCarolina Panthers+10.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.3
Over46.3our total————
Under46.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Rams by 10.7 expected
Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 5%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 6%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 1%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 4%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 39 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 40 points: <1%
← LAR wins byCAR wins by →
Los Angeles Rams wins by 3 or more73%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 7 or more60%
Los Angeles Rams wins by 10 or more53%
Within 3 points either way17%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.3 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.567%
Total over 46.547%
Total over 53.529%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 60% completions, 328 yds/game, 9 TD, 3 INTstarted
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 65% completions, 170 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAR·CAR
Jan 4 vs ARI
last game
Jan 3 at TB
5 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
LAR·CAR
+0.95
rating (0 = average)
−0.46
30.5
points / game
18.3
20.4
points allowed / game
22.4
12−5
season record
8−9
7−1
home record
5−3
5−4
away record
3−6
W1
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
4−6
395
total yards / game
296
6.1
yards / play
4.9
268
passing yards / game
179
127
rushing yards / game
116
23.3
first downs / game
18.0
0.9
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

LAR · CAR · 54 days
Los Angeles RamsCarolina Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · CAR 1−1
Nov 30, 2025at CARCAR 31 − 28
Oct 16, 2022at LARLAR 24 − 10

LAR · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jan 4vs ARI37 − 20W
Dec 29, 2025at ATL24 − 27L
Dec 18, 2025at SEA37 − 38L
Dec 14, 2025vs DET41 − 34W
Dec 7, 2025at ARI45 − 17W
Nov 30, 2025at CAR28 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs TB34 − 7W
Nov 16, 2025vs SEA21 − 19W
Nov 9, 2025at SF42 − 26W
Nov 2, 2025vs NO34 − 10W

CAR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Jan 3at TB14 − 16L
Dec 28, 2025vs SEA10 − 27L
Dec 21, 2025vs TB23 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025at NO17 − 20L
Nov 30, 2025vs LAR31 − 28W
Nov 24, 2025at SF9 − 20L
Nov 16, 2025at ATL30 − 27W
Nov 9, 2025vs NO7 − 17L
Nov 2, 2025at GB16 − 13W
Oct 26, 2025vs BUF9 − 40L