bayesRatings

Panthers at Buccaneers

NFL · Saturday, Jan 3 · 3:30 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium · Final CAR 14 – TB 16
← NFL / Jan 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CAR070714
TB1030316
Team box
CAR·TB
285
total yards
338
266
passing yards
198
19
rushing yards
140
16
first downs
21
1-8
third downs
8-15
3
turnovers
1
22:35
time of possession
37:25
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bryce YoungCAR24/3526621
Baker MayfieldTB16/2220311
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Rico DowdleCAR7100
Bucky IrvingTB26850
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tetairoa McMillanCAR4850
Cade OttonTB7941

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +10
CAR +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TB 10 · CAR 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CAR 37%, TB 63% · Updated Jan 3

Expected margin
TB by 7.2
Expected score
TB 26.2 – 18.9 CAR
Expected total
45.1
PanthersThe matchupBuccaneers
+173Our fair odds−173
18.9Expected points26.2
−0.42Power rating−0.07
18.6Points / game22.8
22.8Allowed / game24.8
296Total yards / game319
4.9Yards / play5.1
174Passing yards / game206
8−8Season record7−9
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CAR chance · TB chance
Our model fair36.6%63.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CARCarolina Panthers+17337%————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−17363%————
SpreadTB by 7.2
CARCarolina Panthers+7.2our margin————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−7.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.1
Over45.1our total————
Under45.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7.2 expected
Carolina Panthers by 46 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 45 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 44 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 43 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 42 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 41 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 40 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 39 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 6%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 7%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 39 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 40 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 41 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 42 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 43 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 44 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 45 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 46 points: <1%
← CAR wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 3 or more63%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 7 or more48%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 10 or more39%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.1 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.567%
Total over 45.546%
Total over 52.528%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 62% completions, 136 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 67% completions, 256 yds/game, 5 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CAR·TB
Dec 28, 2025 vs SEA
last game
Dec 28, 2025 at MIA
5 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
CAR·TB
−0.42
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
18.6
points / game
22.8
22.8
points allowed / game
24.8
8−8
season record
7−9
5−3
home record
3−4
3−5
away record
4−5
L1
streak
L4
5−5
last 10
2−8
296
total yards / game
319
4.9
yards / play
5.1
174
passing yards / game
206
122
rushing yards / game
113
18.1
first downs / game
19.4
1.2
turnovers / game
0.9

Rating Trend

CAR · TB · 52 days
Carolina PanthersTampa Bay Buccaneers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · TB 7−2
Dec 21, 2025at CARCAR 23 − 20
Dec 29, 2024at TBTB 48 − 14
Dec 1, 2024at CARTB 26 − 23
Jan 7, 2024at CARTB 9 − 0
Dec 3, 2023at TBTB 21 − 18
Jan 1, 2023at TBTB 30 − 24
Oct 23, 2022at CARCAR 21 − 3
Jan 9, 2022at TBTB 41 − 17
Dec 26, 2021at CARTB 32 − 6

CAR · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Dec 28, 2025vs SEA10 − 27L
Dec 21, 2025vs TB23 − 20W
Dec 14, 2025at NO17 − 20L
Nov 30, 2025vs LAR31 − 28W
Nov 24, 2025at SF9 − 20L
Nov 16, 2025at ATL30 − 27W
Nov 9, 2025vs NO7 − 17L
Nov 2, 2025at GB16 − 13W
Oct 26, 2025vs BUF9 − 40L
Oct 19, 2025at NYJ13 − 6W

TB · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Dec 28, 2025at MIA17 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at CAR20 − 23L
Dec 11, 2025vs ATL28 − 29L
Dec 7, 2025vs NO20 − 24L
Nov 30, 2025vs ARI20 − 17W
Nov 23, 2025at LAR7 − 34L
Nov 16, 2025at BUF32 − 44L
Nov 9, 2025vs NE23 − 28L
Oct 26, 2025at NO23 − 3W
Oct 20, 2025at DET9 − 24L