bayesRatings

Buccaneers at Dolphins

NFL · Sunday, Dec 28 · 12:00 PM CT · Hard Rock Stadium · Final TB 17 – MIA 20
← NFL / Dec 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TB703717
MIA7100320
Team box
TB·MIA
380
total yards
298
327
passing yards
153
53
rushing yards
145
21
first downs
13
6-13
third downs
4-12
3
turnovers
0
32:06
time of possession
27:54
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Baker MayfieldTB33/4434622
Quinn EwersMIA14/2217220
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bucky IrvingTB9190
De'Von AchaneMIA18830
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jalen McMillanTB71140
Theo Wease Jr.MIA1631

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +10
TB +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 10 · TB 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TB 52%, MIA 48% · Updated Dec 28, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 0.5
Expected score
TB 23.6 – 23.1 MIA
Expected total
46.8
BuccaneersThe matchupDolphins
−110Our fair odds+110
23.6Expected points23.1
−0.02Power rating−0.36
23.1Points / game21.1
25.1Allowed / game24.6
315Total yards / game309
5.1Yards / play5.5
198Passing yards / game187
7−8Season record6−9
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TB chance · MIA chance
Our model fair52.4%47.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−11052%————
MIAMiami Dolphins+11048%————
SpreadTB by 0.5
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−0.5our margin————
MIAMiami Dolphins+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.8
Over46.8our total————
Under46.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 0.5 expected
Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 5%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 9%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 2%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 7%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%
← TB wins byMIA wins by →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 3 or more48%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 7 or more29%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 10 or more22%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.8 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.568%
Total over 46.548%
Total over 53.530%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 57% completions, 181 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted
MIAQuinn Ewers · last 2 games: 66% completions, 156 yds/game, 0 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TB·MIA
Dec 21, 2025 at CAR
last game
Dec 21, 2025 vs CIN
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
TB·MIA
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.36
23.1
points / game
21.1
25.1
points allowed / game
24.6
7−8
season record
6−9
3−4
home record
4−4
4−4
away record
2−5
L3
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
5−5
315
total yards / game
309
5.1
yards / play
5.5
198
passing yards / game
187
117
rushing yards / game
122
19.3
first downs / game
17.7
0.8
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

TB · MIA · 50 days
Tampa Bay BuccaneersMiami Dolphins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · MIA 0−1
Oct 10, 2021at TBTB 45 − 17

TB · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Dec 21, 2025at CAR20 − 23L
Dec 11, 2025vs ATL28 − 29L
Dec 7, 2025vs NO20 − 24L
Nov 30, 2025vs ARI20 − 17W
Nov 23, 2025at LAR7 − 34L
Nov 16, 2025at BUF32 − 44L
Nov 9, 2025vs NE23 − 28L
Oct 26, 2025at NO23 − 3W
Oct 20, 2025at DET9 − 24L
Oct 12, 2025vs SF30 − 19W

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Dec 21, 2025vs CIN21 − 45L
Dec 15, 2025at PIT15 − 28L
Dec 7, 2025at NYJ34 − 10W
Nov 30, 2025vs NO21 − 17W
Nov 16, 2025vs WSH16 − 13W
Nov 9, 2025vs BUF30 − 13W
Oct 30, 2025vs BAL6 − 28L
Oct 26, 2025at ATL34 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025at CLE6 − 31L
Oct 12, 2025vs LAC27 − 29L