bayesRatings

49ers at Seahawks

NFL · Saturday, Jan 17 · 7:00 PM CT · Lumen Field · Final SF 6 – SEA 41
← NFL / Jan 17

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SF06006
SEA17710741
Team box
SF·SEA
236
total yards
281
128
passing yards
106
108
rushing yards
175
15
first downs
19
6-12
third downs
4-10
3
turnovers
0
28:49
time of possession
31:11
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Brock PurdySF15/2714001
Sam DarnoldSEA12/1712410
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Brock PurdySF5370
Kenneth Walker IIISEA191163
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jake TongesSF5590
Cooper KuppSEA5600

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +35
SF +35
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SEA 35 · SF 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 29%, SEA 71% · Updated Jan 17

Expected margin
SEA by 7.0
Expected score
SEA 26.9 – 19.9 SF
Expected total
46.7
49ersThe matchupSeahawks
+243Our fair odds−243
19.9Expected points26.9
+0.53Power rating+1.22
25.7Points / game28.4
21.8Allowed / game17.2
351Total yards / game351
5.5Yards / play6.0
245Passing yards / game228
12−5 · 1−0 postSeason record14−3
8−2Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · SEA chance
Our model fair29.2%70.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco 49ers+24329%————
SEASeattle Seahawks−24371%————
SpreadSEA by 7.0
SFSan Francisco 49ers+7our margin————
SEASeattle Seahawks−7our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.7
Over46.7our total————
Under46.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 7.0 expected
San Francisco 49ers by 46 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 45 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 44 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 43 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 42 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 6%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 7%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 41 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 42 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 43 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 44 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 45 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 46 points: <1%
← SF wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more62%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more47%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more39%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.7 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.568%
Total over 46.548%
Total over 53.530%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SFBrock Purdy · last 3 games: 67% completions, 231 yds/game, 5 TD, 4 INTstarted
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 69% completions, 205 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·SEA
Jan 11 at PHI
last game
Jan 3 at SF
5 days
days of rest
13 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
SF·SEA
+0.53
rating (0 = average)
+1.22
25.7
points / game
28.4
21.8
points allowed / game
17.2
12−5 · 1−0 post
season record
14−3
5−3
home record
6−2
7−2
away record
8−1
W1
streak
W7
8−2
last 10
9−1
351
total yards / game
351
5.5
yards / play
6.0
245
passing yards / game
228
107
rushing yards / game
123
22.3
first downs / game
20.0
1.3
turnovers / game
1.6

Rating Trend

SF · SEA · 57 days
San Francisco 49ersSeattle Seahawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 3−7
Jan 3at SFSEA 13 − 3
Sep 7, 2025at SEASF 17 − 13
Nov 17, 2024at SFSEA 20 − 17
Oct 10, 2024at SEASF 36 − 24
Dec 10, 2023at SFSF 28 − 16
Nov 23, 2023at SEASF 31 − 13
Jan 14, 2023at SFSF 41 − 23post
Dec 15, 2022at SEASF 21 − 13
Sep 18, 2022at SFSF 27 − 7
Dec 5, 2021at SEASEA 30 − 23

SF · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Jan 11at PHI23 − 19W
Jan 3vs SEA3 − 13L
Dec 28, 2025vs CHI42 − 38W
Dec 22, 2025at IND48 − 27W
Dec 14, 2025vs TEN37 − 24W
Nov 30, 2025at CLE26 − 8W
Nov 24, 2025vs CAR20 − 9W
Nov 16, 2025at ARI41 − 22W
Nov 9, 2025vs LAR26 − 42L
Nov 2, 2025at NYG34 − 24W

SEA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W7
Jan 3at SF13 − 3W
Dec 28, 2025at CAR27 − 10W
Dec 18, 2025vs LAR38 − 37W
Dec 14, 2025vs IND18 − 16W
Dec 7, 2025at ATL37 − 9W
Nov 30, 2025vs MIN26 − 0W
Nov 23, 2025at TEN30 − 24W
Nov 16, 2025at LAR19 − 21L
Nov 9, 2025vs ARI44 − 22W
Nov 2, 2025at WSH38 − 14W