bayesRatings

49ers at Eagles

NFL · Sunday, Jan 11 · 3:30 PM CT · Lincoln Financial Field · Final SF 23 – PHI 19
← NFL / Jan 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SF7301323
PHI673319
Team box
SF·PHI
361
total yards
307
286
passing yards
167
75
rushing yards
140
20
first downs
19
6-11
third downs
5-16
2
turnovers
0
24:21
time of possession
35:39
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Brock PurdySF18/3126222
Jalen HurtsPHI20/3516810
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Christian McCaffreySF15480
Saquon BarkleyPHI261060
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Demarcus RobinsonSF61111
DeVonta SmithPHI8700

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +7
SF +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 6 · SF 7lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 41%, PHI 59% · Updated Jan 11

Expected margin
PHI by 3.4
Expected score
PHI 23.9 – 20.5 SF
Expected total
44.4
49ersThe matchupEagles
+146Our fair odds−146
20.5Expected points23.9
+0.44Power rating+0.59
25.7Points / game22.3
21.8Allowed / game19.1
351Total yards / game311
5.5Yards / play5.3
245Passing yards / game194
12−5Season record11−6
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · PHI chance
Our model fair40.7%59.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco 49ers+14641%————
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−14659%————
SpreadPHI by 3.4
SFSan Francisco 49ers+3.4our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−3.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.4
Over44.4our total————
Under44.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Eagles by 3.4 expected
San Francisco 49ers by 43 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 42 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 8%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 7%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 43 points: <1%
← SF wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 3 or more53%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 7 or more37%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 10 or more28%
Within 3 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.4 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.567%
Total over 44.547%
Total over 51.529%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SFBrock Purdy · last 3 games: 72% completions, 242 yds/game, 8 TD, 3 INTstarted
PHIJalen Hurts · last 3 games: 65% completions, 157 yds/game, 6 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·PHI
Jan 3 vs SEA
last game
Jan 4 vs WSH
7 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
SF·PHI
+0.44
rating (0 = average)
+0.59
25.7
points / game
22.3
21.8
points allowed / game
19.1
12−5
season record
11−6
5−3
home record
5−3
7−2
away record
6−3
L1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
351
total yards / game
311
5.5
yards / play
5.3
245
passing yards / game
194
107
rushing yards / game
117
22.3
first downs / game
18.0
1.3
turnovers / game
0.9

Rating Trend

SF · PHI · 55 days
San Francisco 49ersPhiladelphia Eagles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · PHI 1−2
Dec 3, 2023at PHISF 42 − 19
Jan 29, 2023at PHIPHI 31 − 7post
Sep 19, 2021at PHISF 17 − 11

SF · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jan 3vs SEA3 − 13L
Dec 28, 2025vs CHI42 − 38W
Dec 22, 2025at IND48 − 27W
Dec 14, 2025vs TEN37 − 24W
Nov 30, 2025at CLE26 − 8W
Nov 24, 2025vs CAR20 − 9W
Nov 16, 2025at ARI41 − 22W
Nov 9, 2025vs LAR26 − 42L
Nov 2, 2025at NYG34 − 24W
Oct 26, 2025at HOU15 − 26L

PHI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jan 4vs WSH17 − 24L
Dec 28, 2025at BUF13 − 12W
Dec 20, 2025at WSH29 − 18W
Dec 14, 2025vs LV31 − 0W
Dec 8, 2025at LAC19 − 22L
Nov 28, 2025vs CHI15 − 24L
Nov 23, 2025at DAL21 − 24L
Nov 16, 2025vs DET16 − 9W
Nov 10, 2025at GB10 − 7W
Oct 26, 2025vs NYG38 − 20W