bayesRatings

Seahawks at 49ers

NFL · Saturday, Jan 3 · 7:00 PM CT · Levi's Stadium · Final SEA 13 – SF 3
← NFL / Jan 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
SEA730313
SF03003
Team box
SEA·SF
361
total yards
173
181
passing yards
120
180
rushing yards
53
23
first downs
9
6-13
third downs
2-9
0
turnovers
1
37:48
time of possession
22:12
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Sam DarnoldSEA20/2619800
Brock PurdySF19/2712701
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kenneth Walker IIISEA16970
Christian McCaffreySF8230
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA6840
Jauan JenningsSF4350

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +10
SEA +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SF 0 · SEA 10lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 59%, SF 41% · Updated Jan 3

Expected margin
SEA by 4.2
Expected score
SEA 27.2 – 23.0 SF
Expected total
50.2
SeahawksThe matchup49ers
−143Our fair odds+143
27.2Expected points23.0
+1.13Power rating+0.54
29.4Points / game27.1
18.1Allowed / game22.4
351Total yards / game363
6.0Yards / play5.6
231Passing yards / game252
13−3Season record12−4
9−1Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · SF chance
Our model fair58.9%41.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Seahawks−14359%————
SFSan Francisco 49ers+14341%————
SpreadSEA by 4.2
SEASeattle Seahawks−4.2our margin————
SFSan Francisco 49ers+4.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 50.2
Over50.2our total————
Under50.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 4.2 expected
Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 5%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 9%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 6%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%
← SEA wins bySF wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more58%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more39%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more31%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

50.2 expected
16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 43.565%
Total over 50.547%
Total over 57.530%
Total from 44 to 5735%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 64% completions, 229 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted
SFBrock Purdy · last 3 games: 74% completions, 298 yds/game, 11 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·SF
Dec 28, 2025 at CAR
last game
Dec 28, 2025 vs CHI
5 days
days of rest
5 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
SEA·SF
+1.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.54
29.4
points / game
27.1
18.1
points allowed / game
22.4
13−3
season record
12−4
6−2
home record
5−2
7−1
away record
7−2
W6
streak
W6
9−1
last 10
8−2
351
total yards / game
363
6.0
yards / play
5.6
231
passing yards / game
252
120
rushing yards / game
110
19.8
first downs / game
23.1
1.8
turnovers / game
1.3

Rating Trend

SEA · SF · 52 days
Seattle SeahawksSan Francisco 49ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 7−3
Sep 7, 2025at SEASF 17 − 13
Nov 17, 2024at SFSEA 20 − 17
Oct 10, 2024at SEASF 36 − 24
Dec 10, 2023at SFSF 28 − 16
Nov 23, 2023at SEASF 31 − 13
Jan 14, 2023at SFSF 41 − 23post
Dec 15, 2022at SEASF 21 − 13
Sep 18, 2022at SFSF 27 − 7
Dec 5, 2021at SEASEA 30 − 23
Oct 3, 2021at SFSEA 28 − 21

SEA · Last 10

9−1 · streak W6
Dec 28, 2025at CAR27 − 10W
Dec 18, 2025vs LAR38 − 37W
Dec 14, 2025vs IND18 − 16W
Dec 7, 2025at ATL37 − 9W
Nov 30, 2025vs MIN26 − 0W
Nov 23, 2025at TEN30 − 24W
Nov 16, 2025at LAR19 − 21L
Nov 9, 2025vs ARI44 − 22W
Nov 2, 2025at WSH38 − 14W
Oct 20, 2025vs HOU27 − 19W

SF · Last 10

8−2 · streak W6
Dec 28, 2025vs CHI42 − 38W
Dec 22, 2025at IND48 − 27W
Dec 14, 2025vs TEN37 − 24W
Nov 30, 2025at CLE26 − 8W
Nov 24, 2025vs CAR20 − 9W
Nov 16, 2025at ARI41 − 22W
Nov 9, 2025vs LAR26 − 42L
Nov 2, 2025at NYG34 − 24W
Oct 26, 2025at HOU15 − 26L
Oct 19, 2025vs ATL20 − 10W