bayesRatings

Packers at Vikings

NFL · Sunday, Sep 13 · 3:25 PM CT · U.S. Bank Stadium · Final GB 22 – MIN 39
← NFL / Sep 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GB9103022
MIN3772239
Team box
GB·MIN
419
total yards
239
353
passing yards
132
66
rushing yards
107
19
first downs
19
3-12
third downs
8-15
2
turnovers
1
27:02
time of possession
32:58
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jordan LoveGB21/4238721
Carson WentzMIN12/1913330
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
MarShawn LloydGB13370
Jordan MasonMIN15591
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Christian WatsonGB61472
Justin JeffersonMIN8922

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +17
GB +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 17 · GB 12lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GB 43%, MIN 57% · Updated Sep 13

Expected margin
MIN by 2.7
Expected score
MIN 21.1 – 18.4 GB
Expected total
39.5
PackersThe matchupVikings
+133Our fair odds−133
18.4Expected points21.1
+0.24Power rating+0.29
0−0Season record0−0
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GB chance · MIN chance
Our model fair42.9%57.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GBGreen Bay Packers+13343%————
MINMinnesota Vikings−13357%————
SpreadMIN by 2.7
GBGreen Bay Packers+2.7our margin————
MINMinnesota Vikings−2.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.5
Over39.5our total————
Under39.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Vikings by 2.7 expected
Green Bay Packers by 42 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 41 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 40 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 39 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 8%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 7%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 42 points: <1%
← GB wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Vikings wins by 3 or more51%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 7 or more35%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 10 or more26%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.5 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.569%
Total over 39.548%
Total over 46.528%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 57% completions, 225 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted
MINCarson Wentz · last 3 games: 64% completions, 231 yds/game, 2 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GB·MIN
Jan 10 at CHI
last game
Jan 4 vs GB
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
GB·MIN
+0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.29
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
4−6
last 10
6−4

Rating Trend

GB · MIN · 63 days
Green Bay PackersMinnesota Vikings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 6−4
Jan 4at MINMIN 16 − 3
Nov 23, 2025at GBGB 23 − 6
Dec 29, 2024at MINMIN 27 − 25
Sep 29, 2024at GBMIN 31 − 29
Dec 31, 2023at MINGB 33 − 10
Oct 29, 2023at GBMIN 24 − 10
Jan 1, 2023at GBGB 41 − 17
Sep 11, 2022at MINMIN 23 − 7
Jan 2, 2022at GBGB 37 − 10
Nov 21, 2021at MINMIN 34 − 31

GB · Last 10

4−6 · streak L5
Jan 10at CHI27 − 31L
Jan 4at MIN3 − 16L
Dec 27, 2025vs BAL24 − 41L
Dec 20, 2025at CHI16 − 22L
Dec 14, 2025at DEN26 − 34L
Dec 7, 2025vs CHI28 − 21W
Nov 27, 2025at DET31 − 24W
Nov 23, 2025vs MIN23 − 6W
Nov 16, 2025at NYG27 − 20W
Nov 10, 2025vs PHI7 − 10L

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W5
Jan 4vs GB16 − 3W
Dec 25, 2025vs DET23 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025at NYG16 − 13W
Dec 14, 2025at DAL34 − 26W
Dec 7, 2025vs WSH31 − 0W
Nov 30, 2025at SEA0 − 26L
Nov 23, 2025at GB6 − 23L
Nov 16, 2025vs CHI17 − 19L
Nov 9, 2025vs BAL19 − 27L
Nov 2, 2025at DET27 − 24W