bayesRatings

Commanders at Eagles

NFL · Sunday, Sep 13 · 3:25 PM CT · Lincoln Financial Field · Final WSH 22 – PHI 24
← NFL / Sep 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
WSH3601322
PHI0143724
Team box
WSH·PHI
295
total yards
318
163
passing yards
182
132
rushing yards
136
20
first downs
10
5-15
third downs
6-14
0
turnovers
0
33:20
time of possession
26:40
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jayden DanielsWSH18/3416420
Jalen HurtsPHI14/2520330
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jacory Croskey-MerrittWSH16631
Saquon BarkleyPHI15830
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Antonio WilliamsWSH4641
Dallas GoedertPHI4772

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +11
WSH +11
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 11 · WSH 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 25%, PHI 75% · Updated Sep 13

Expected margin
PHI by 10.1
Expected score
PHI 27.9 – 17.8 WSH
Expected total
45.7
CommandersThe matchupEagles
+297Our fair odds−297
17.8Expected points27.9
−0.40Power rating+0.49
0−0Season record0−0
2−8Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · PHI chance
Our model fair25.2%74.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Commanders+29725%————
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−29775%————
SpreadPHI by 10.1
WSHWashington Commanders+10.1our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−10.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.7
Over45.7our total————
Under45.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Eagles by 10.1 expected
Washington Commanders by 48 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 47 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 46 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 45 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 44 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 43 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 42 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 41 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 40 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 39 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 32 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 25 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 22 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 21 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 19 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 18 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 16 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 15 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 13 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 11 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 9 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 5%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 6%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 47 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 48 points: <1%
← WSH wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 3 or more70%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 7 or more56%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 10 or more47%
Within 3 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.7 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
WSHJayden Daniels · last 3 games: 58% completions, 129 yds/game, 1 TD, 2 INTstarted
PHIJalen Hurts · last 3 games: 60% completions, 154 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·PHI
Jan 4 at PHI
last game
Jan 11 vs SF
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
WSH·PHI
−0.40
rating (0 = average)
+0.49
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
2−8
last 10
5−5

Rating Trend

WSH · PHI · 63 days
Washington CommandersPhiladelphia Eagles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PHI 7−3
Jan 4at PHIWSH 24 − 17
Dec 20, 2025at WSHPHI 29 − 18
Jan 26, 2025at PHIPHI 55 − 23post
Dec 22, 2024at WSHWSH 36 − 33
Nov 14, 2024at PHIPHI 26 − 18
Oct 29, 2023at WSHPHI 38 − 31
Oct 1, 2023at PHIPHI 34 − 31
Nov 14, 2022at PHIWSH 32 − 21
Sep 25, 2022at WSHPHI 24 − 8
Jan 2, 2022at WSHPHI 20 − 16

WSH · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Jan 4at PHI24 − 17W
Dec 25, 2025vs DAL23 − 30L
Dec 20, 2025vs PHI18 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at NYG29 − 21W
Dec 7, 2025at MIN0 − 31L
Nov 30, 2025vs DEN26 − 27L
Nov 16, 2025at MIA13 − 16L
Nov 9, 2025vs DET22 − 44L
Nov 2, 2025vs SEA14 − 38L
Oct 27, 2025at KC7 − 28L

PHI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Jan 11vs SF19 − 23L
Jan 4vs WSH17 − 24L
Dec 28, 2025at BUF13 − 12W
Dec 20, 2025at WSH29 − 18W
Dec 14, 2025vs LV31 − 0W
Dec 8, 2025at LAC19 − 22L
Nov 28, 2025vs CHI15 − 24L
Nov 23, 2025at DAL21 − 24L
Nov 16, 2025vs DET16 − 9W
Nov 10, 2025at GB10 − 7W