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Broncos at Chiefs

NFL · Monday, Sep 14 · 7:15 PM CT · Arrowhead Stadium · Final DEN 10 – KC 31
← NFL / Sep 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN703010
KC7710731
Team box
DEN·KC
176
total yards
392
115
passing yards
172
61
rushing yards
220
9
first downs
19
2-12
third downs
9-17
2
turnovers
1
26:18
time of possession
33:42
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bo NixDEN17/2813111
Patrick MahomesKC15/2718421
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
J.K. DobbinsDEN8360
Kenneth Walker IIIKC231731
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Evan EngramDEN4431
Travis KelceKC3710

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +21
DEN +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: KC 21 · DEN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 57%, KC 43% · Updated Sep 14

Expected margin
DEN by 0.2
Expected score
DEN 18.2 – 17.9 KC
Expected total
36.1
BroncosThe matchupChiefs
−132Our fair odds+132
18.2Expected points17.9
+0.55Power rating+0.00
0−0Season record0−0
8−2Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · KC chance
Our model fair56.9%43.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Broncos−13257%————
KCKansas City Chiefs+13243%————
SpreadDEN by 0.2
DENDenver Broncos−0.2our margin————
KCKansas City Chiefs+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 36.1
Over36.1our total————
Under36.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Broncos by 0.2 expected
Denver Broncos by 38 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 19 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 5%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 9%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 7%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%
← DEN wins byKC wins by →
Denver Broncos wins by 3 or more47%
Denver Broncos wins by 7 or more29%
Denver Broncos wins by 10 or more21%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

36.1 expected
3 points: <1%4 points: <1%5 points: <1%6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: 1%14 points: 1%15 points: 1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 2%20 points: 1%21 points: 2%22 points: 2%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 3%27 points: 3%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 3%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 1%51 points: 2%52 points: 1%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: <1%63 points: <1%64 points: <1%65 points: <1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 29.569%
Total over 36.547%
Total over 43.527%
Total from 30 to 4342%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 62% completions, 201 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 56% completions, 203 yds/game, 4 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·KC
Jan 25 vs NE
last game
Jan 4 at LV
first game in 30+ days
days of rest
first game in 30+ days
season opener, road
home / road
season opener, home

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season
DEN·KC
+0.55
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
0−0
season record
0−0
0−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
0−0
—
streak
—
8−2
last 10
2−8

Rating Trend

DEN · KC · 64 days
Denver BroncosKansas City Chiefs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 6−4
Dec 25, 2025at KCDEN 20 − 13
Nov 16, 2025at DENDEN 22 − 19
Jan 5, 2025at DENDEN 38 − 0
Nov 10, 2024at KCKC 16 − 14
Oct 29, 2023at DENDEN 24 − 9
Oct 12, 2023at KCKC 19 − 8
Jan 1, 2023at KCKC 27 − 24
Dec 11, 2022at DENKC 34 − 28
Jan 8, 2022at DENKC 28 − 24
Dec 5, 2021at KCKC 22 − 9

DEN · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Jan 25vs NE7 − 10L
Jan 17vs BUF33 − 30W
Jan 4vs LAC19 − 3W
Dec 25, 2025at KC20 − 13W
Dec 21, 2025vs JAX20 − 34L
Dec 14, 2025vs GB34 − 26W
Dec 7, 2025at LV24 − 17W
Nov 30, 2025at WSH27 − 26W
Nov 16, 2025vs KC22 − 19W
Nov 6, 2025vs LV10 − 7W

KC · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Jan 4at LV12 − 14L
Dec 25, 2025vs DEN13 − 20L
Dec 21, 2025at TEN9 − 26L
Dec 14, 2025vs LAC13 − 16L
Dec 7, 2025vs HOU10 − 20L
Nov 27, 2025at DAL28 − 31L
Nov 23, 2025vs IND23 − 20W
Nov 16, 2025at DEN19 − 22L
Nov 2, 2025at BUF21 − 28L
Oct 27, 2025vs WSH28 − 7W