bayesRatings

Patriots at Broncos

NFL · Sunday, Jan 25 · 2:00 PM CT · Empower Field at Mile High · Final NE 10 – DEN 7
← NFL / Jan 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NE073010
DEN70007
Team box
NE·DEN
206
total yards
181
65
passing yards
102
141
rushing yards
79
12
first downs
11
6-18
third downs
4-14
0
turnovers
2
33:09
time of possession
26:51
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Drake MayeNE10/218600
Jarrett StidhamDEN17/3113311
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Rhamondre StevensonNE25710
RJ HarveyDEN13370
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Mack HollinsNE2510
Marvin Mims Jr.DEN4620

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +7
NE +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 7 · NE 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NE 46%, DEN 54% · Updated Jan 25

Expected margin
DEN by 0.8
Expected score
DEN 21.4 – 20.6 NE
Expected total
42.0
PatriotsThe matchupBroncos
+119Our fair odds−119
20.6Expected points21.4
+0.70Power rating+0.62
28.8Points / game23.6
18.8Allowed / game18.3
379Total yards / game343
6.2Yards / play5.3
250Passing yards / game224
14−3 · 2−0 postSeason record14−3 · 1−0 post
9−1Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NE chance · DEN chance
Our model fair45.6%54.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NENew England Patriots+11946%————
DENDenver Broncos−11954%————
SpreadDEN by 0.8
NENew England Patriots+0.8our margin————
DENDenver Broncos−0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 42.0
Over42.0our total————
Under42.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Broncos by 0.8 expected
New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: <1%New England Patriots by 35 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: <1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: <1%New England Patriots by 30 points: <1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 1%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 26 points: <1%New England Patriots by 25 points: 1%New England Patriots by 24 points: 1%New England Patriots by 23 points: 1%New England Patriots by 22 points: 1%New England Patriots by 21 points: 1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 1%New England Patriots by 19 points: 1%New England Patriots by 18 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 2%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 14 points: 3%New England Patriots by 13 points: 1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 1%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 3%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 8 points: 2%New England Patriots by 7 points: 5%New England Patriots by 6 points: 3%New England Patriots by 5 points: 3%New England Patriots by 4 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 9%New England Patriots by 2 points: 2%New England Patriots by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 2%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 7%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 19 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 40 points: <1%
← NE wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Broncos wins by 3 or more45%
Denver Broncos wins by 7 or more29%
Denver Broncos wins by 10 or more22%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

42.0 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: 1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 35.567%
Total over 42.547%
Total over 49.528%
Total from 36 to 4940%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 64% completions, 213 yds/game, 5 TD, 2 INTstarted
DENJarrett Stidham · last 3 games: 61% completions, 238 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NE·DEN
Jan 18 vs HOU
last game
Jan 17 vs BUF
6 days
days of rest
7 days
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 17+ games
NE·DEN
+0.70
rating (0 = average)
+0.62
28.8
points / game
23.6
18.8
points allowed / game
18.3
14−3 · 2−0 post
season record
14−3 · 1−0 post
6−3
home record
8−1
8−0
away record
6−2
W5
streak
W3
9−1
last 10
9−1
379
total yards / game
343
6.2
yards / play
5.3
250
passing yards / game
224
129
rushing yards / game
119
21.2
first downs / game
19.6
0.9
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

NE · DEN · 59 days
New England PatriotsDenver Broncos
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · DEN 0−1
Dec 24, 2023at DENNE 26 − 23

NE · Last 10

9−1 · streak W5
Jan 18vs HOU28 − 16W
Jan 11vs LAC16 − 3W
Jan 4vs MIA38 − 10W
Dec 28, 2025at NYJ42 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025at BAL28 − 24W
Dec 14, 2025vs BUF31 − 35L
Dec 1, 2025vs NYG33 − 15W
Nov 23, 2025at CIN26 − 20W
Nov 13, 2025vs NYJ27 − 14W
Nov 9, 2025at TB28 − 23W

DEN · Last 10

9−1 · streak W3
Jan 17vs BUF33 − 30W
Jan 4vs LAC19 − 3W
Dec 25, 2025at KC20 − 13W
Dec 21, 2025vs JAX20 − 34L
Dec 14, 2025vs GB34 − 26W
Dec 7, 2025at LV24 − 17W
Nov 30, 2025at WSH27 − 26W
Nov 16, 2025vs KC22 − 19W
Nov 6, 2025vs LV10 − 7W
Nov 2, 2025at HOU18 − 15W