bayesRatings

Patriots at Jets

NFL · Sunday, Dec 28 · 12:00 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final NE 42 – NYJ 10
← NFL / Dec 28, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NE14217042
NYJ030710
Team box
NE·NYJ
440
total yards
307
285
passing yards
143
155
rushing yards
164
28
first downs
14
4-9
third downs
5-16
0
turnovers
1
31:55
time of possession
28:05
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Drake MayeNE19/2125650
Brady CookNYJ19/3315201
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
TreVeyon HendersonNE19820
Breece HallNYJ141111
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Stefon DiggsNE61011
John Metchie IIINYJ3410

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYJ +39
NE +39
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYJ 0 · NE 39lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NE 76%, NYJ 24% · Updated Dec 28, 2025

Expected margin
NE by 9.4
Expected score
NE 27.6 – 18.2 NYJ
Expected total
45.9
PatriotsThe matchupJets
−322Our fair odds+322
27.6Expected points18.2
+0.34Power rating−1.14
27.3Points / game18.8
20.0Allowed / game28.4
370Total yards / game270
6.0Yards / play4.4
251Passing yards / game146
12−3Season record3−12
9−1Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NE chance · NYJ chance
Our model fair76.3%23.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NENew England Patriots−32276%————
NYJNew York Jets+32224%————
SpreadNE by 9.4
NENew England Patriots−9.4our margin————
NYJNew York Jets+9.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.9
Over45.9our total————
Under45.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New England Patriots by 9.4 expected
New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 38 points: <1%New England Patriots by 37 points: <1%New England Patriots by 36 points: 1%New England Patriots by 35 points: 1%New England Patriots by 34 points: 1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 32 points: <1%New England Patriots by 31 points: 2%New England Patriots by 30 points: 1%New England Patriots by 29 points: <1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 3%New England Patriots by 27 points: <1%New England Patriots by 26 points: 1%New England Patriots by 25 points: 2%New England Patriots by 24 points: 3%New England Patriots by 23 points: 3%New England Patriots by 22 points: 2%New England Patriots by 21 points: 3%New England Patriots by 20 points: 2%New England Patriots by 19 points: 2%New England Patriots by 18 points: 2%New England Patriots by 17 points: 4%New England Patriots by 16 points: 2%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 14 points: 5%New England Patriots by 13 points: 1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 1%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 3%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 8 points: 2%New England Patriots by 7 points: 5%New England Patriots by 6 points: 3%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 4 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 7%New England Patriots by 2 points: 1%New England Patriots by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%New York Jets by 1 point: 1%New York Jets by 2 points: 2%New York Jets by 3 points: 4%New York Jets by 4 points: 1%New York Jets by 5 points: 1%New York Jets by 6 points: 2%New York Jets by 7 points: 2%New York Jets by 8 points: 1%New York Jets by 9 points: <1%New York Jets by 10 points: 1%New York Jets by 11 points: <1%New York Jets by 12 points: 1%New York Jets by 13 points: 1%New York Jets by 14 points: 1%New York Jets by 15 points: <1%New York Jets by 16 points: <1%New York Jets by 17 points: 1%New York Jets by 18 points: 1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 20 points: <1%New York Jets by 21 points: <1%New York Jets by 22 points: <1%New York Jets by 23 points: <1%New York Jets by 24 points: <1%New York Jets by 25 points: <1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: <1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%
← NE wins byNYJ wins by →
New England Patriots wins by 3 or more71%
New England Patriots wins by 7 or more56%
New England Patriots wins by 10 or more48%
Within 3 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.9 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 70% completions, 272 yds/game, 4 TD, 2 INTstarted
NYJBrady Cook · last 3 games: 59% completions, 176 yds/game, 1 TD, 6 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NE·NYJ
Dec 21, 2025 at BAL
last game
Dec 21, 2025 at NO
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 15+ games
NE·NYJ
+0.34
rating (0 = average)
−1.14
27.3
points / game
18.8
20.0
points allowed / game
28.4
12−3
season record
3−12
5−3
home record
2−6
7−0
away record
1−6
W1
streak
L3
9−1
last 10
3−7
370
total yards / game
270
6.0
yards / play
4.4
251
passing yards / game
146
120
rushing yards / game
124
20.7
first downs / game
16.6
1.1
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

NE · NYJ · 50 days
New England PatriotsNew York Jets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NYJ 2−7
Nov 13, 2025at NENE 27 − 14
Oct 27, 2024at NENE 25 − 22
Sep 19, 2024at NYJNYJ 24 − 3
Jan 7, 2024at NENYJ 17 − 3
Sep 24, 2023at NYJNE 15 − 10
Nov 20, 2022at NENE 10 − 3
Oct 30, 2022at NYJNE 22 − 17
Oct 24, 2021at NENE 54 − 13
Sep 19, 2021at NYJNE 25 − 6

NE · Last 10

9−1 · streak W1
Dec 21, 2025at BAL28 − 24W
Dec 14, 2025vs BUF31 − 35L
Dec 1, 2025vs NYG33 − 15W
Nov 23, 2025at CIN26 − 20W
Nov 13, 2025vs NYJ27 − 14W
Nov 9, 2025at TB28 − 23W
Nov 2, 2025vs ATL24 − 23W
Oct 26, 2025vs CLE32 − 13W
Oct 19, 2025at TEN31 − 13W
Oct 12, 2025at NO25 − 19W

NYJ · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Dec 21, 2025at NO6 − 29L
Dec 14, 2025at JAX20 − 48L
Dec 7, 2025vs MIA10 − 34L
Nov 30, 2025vs ATL27 − 24W
Nov 23, 2025at BAL10 − 23L
Nov 13, 2025at NE14 − 27L
Nov 9, 2025vs CLE27 − 20W
Oct 26, 2025at CIN39 − 38W
Oct 19, 2025vs CAR6 − 13L
Oct 12, 2025vs DEN11 − 13L