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Jets at Jaguars

NFL · Sunday, Dec 14 · 12:00 PM CT · EverBank Stadium · Final NYJ 20 – JAX 48
← NFL / Dec 14, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NYJ733720
JAX141710748
Team box
NYJ·JAX
284
total yards
438
154
passing yards
330
130
rushing yards
108
19
first downs
24
8-15
third downs
4-9
3
turnovers
1
33:07
time of possession
26:53
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Brady CookNYJ22/3317613
Trevor LawrenceJAX20/3233050
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Isaiah DavisNYJ9581
Trevor LawrenceJAX5511
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Adonai MitchellNYJ6581
Travis Etienne Jr.JAX3733

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
JAX +28
NYJ +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: JAX 28 · NYJ 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYJ 22%, JAX 78% · Updated Dec 14, 2025

Expected margin
JAX by 10.5
Expected score
JAX 27.7 – 17.2 NYJ
Expected total
44.9
JetsThe matchupJaguars
+348Our fair odds−348
17.2Expected points27.7
−0.82Power rating+0.24
19.7Points / game25.2
26.8Allowed / game20.9
275Total yards / game328
4.6Yards / play5.1
146Passing yards / game206
3−10Season record9−4
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYJ chance · JAX chance
Our model fair22.3%77.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYJNew York Jets+34822%————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−34878%————
SpreadJAX by 10.5
NYJNew York Jets+10.5our margin————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars−10.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.9
Over44.9our total————
Under44.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Jacksonville Jaguars by 10.5 expected
New York Jets by 48 points: <1%New York Jets by 47 points: <1%New York Jets by 46 points: <1%New York Jets by 45 points: <1%New York Jets by 44 points: <1%New York Jets by 43 points: <1%New York Jets by 42 points: <1%New York Jets by 41 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 25 points: <1%New York Jets by 24 points: <1%New York Jets by 23 points: <1%New York Jets by 22 points: <1%New York Jets by 21 points: <1%New York Jets by 20 points: <1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 18 points: <1%New York Jets by 17 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: <1%New York Jets by 15 points: <1%New York Jets by 14 points: 1%New York Jets by 13 points: <1%New York Jets by 12 points: <1%New York Jets by 11 points: <1%New York Jets by 10 points: 1%New York Jets by 9 points: <1%New York Jets by 8 points: 1%New York Jets by 7 points: 2%New York Jets by 6 points: 2%New York Jets by 5 points: 1%New York Jets by 4 points: 2%New York Jets by 3 points: 5%New York Jets by 2 points: 1%New York Jets by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 6%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 39 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 40 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 41 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 42 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 43 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 44 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 45 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 46 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 47 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 48 points: <1%
← NYJ wins byJAX wins by →
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 3 or more71%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 7 or more57%
Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 10 or more48%
Within 3 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.9 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.569%
Total over 44.548%
Total over 51.530%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYJBrady Cook · last 1 game: 47% completions, 163 yds/game, 0 TD, 2 INTstarted
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 59% completions, 243 yds/game, 7 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYJ·JAX
Dec 7, 2025 vs MIA
last game
Dec 7, 2025 vs IND
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
NYJ·JAX
−0.82
rating (0 = average)
+0.24
19.7
points / game
25.2
26.8
points allowed / game
20.9
3−10
season record
9−4
2−6
home record
5−2
1−4
away record
4−2
L1
streak
W4
3−7
last 10
7−3
275
total yards / game
328
4.6
yards / play
5.1
146
passing yards / game
206
128
rushing yards / game
122
16.8
first downs / game
20.4
1.3
turnovers / game
1.2

Rating Trend

NYJ · JAX · 42 days
New York JetsJacksonville Jaguars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · JAX 1−2
Dec 15, 2024at JAXNYJ 32 − 25
Dec 22, 2022at NYJJAX 19 − 3
Dec 26, 2021at NYJNYJ 26 − 21

NYJ · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Dec 7, 2025vs MIA10 − 34L
Nov 30, 2025vs ATL27 − 24W
Nov 23, 2025at BAL10 − 23L
Nov 13, 2025at NE14 − 27L
Nov 9, 2025vs CLE27 − 20W
Oct 26, 2025at CIN39 − 38W
Oct 19, 2025vs CAR6 − 13L
Oct 12, 2025vs DEN11 − 13L
Oct 5, 2025vs DAL22 − 37L
Sep 29, 2025at MIA21 − 27L

JAX · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Dec 7, 2025vs IND36 − 19W
Nov 30, 2025at TEN25 − 3W
Nov 23, 2025at ARI27 − 24W
Nov 16, 2025vs LAC35 − 6W
Nov 9, 2025at HOU29 − 36L
Nov 2, 2025at LV30 − 29W
Oct 19, 2025vs LAR7 − 35L
Oct 12, 2025vs SEA12 − 20L
Oct 6, 2025vs KC31 − 28W
Sep 28, 2025at SF26 − 21W