bayesRatings

Jets at Saints

NFL · Sunday, Dec 21 · 12:00 PM CT · Caesars Superdome · Final NYJ 6 – NO 29
← NFL / Dec 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NYJ33006
NO3671329
Team box
NYJ·NO
195
total yards
412
131
passing yards
328
64
rushing yards
84
12
first downs
23
2-15
third downs
8-17
2
turnovers
1
28:42
time of possession
31:18
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Brady CookNYJ22/3518801
Tyler ShoughNO32/4930810
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Breece HallNYJ16540
Taysom HillNO12420
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Isaiah DavisNYJ4520
Chris OlaveNO101482

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NO +23
NYJ +23
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NO 23 · NYJ 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYJ 38%, NO 62% · Updated Dec 21, 2025

Expected margin
NO by 4.6
Expected score
NO 22.4 – 17.8 NYJ
Expected total
40.2
JetsThe matchupSaints
+165Our fair odds−165
17.8Expected points22.4
−0.99Power rating−0.73
19.7Points / game16.1
28.4Allowed / game23.7
276Total yards / game297
4.5Yards / play4.8
147Passing yards / game203
3−11Season record4−10
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYJ chance · NO chance
Our model fair37.8%62.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYJNew York Jets+16538%————
NONew Orleans Saints−16562%————
SpreadNO by 4.6
NYJNew York Jets+4.6our margin————
NONew Orleans Saints−4.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.2
Over40.2our total————
Under40.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New Orleans Saints by 4.6 expected
New York Jets by 44 points: <1%New York Jets by 43 points: <1%New York Jets by 42 points: <1%New York Jets by 41 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 25 points: <1%New York Jets by 24 points: 1%New York Jets by 23 points: 1%New York Jets by 22 points: <1%New York Jets by 21 points: 1%New York Jets by 20 points: 1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 18 points: 1%New York Jets by 17 points: 1%New York Jets by 16 points: 1%New York Jets by 15 points: <1%New York Jets by 14 points: 2%New York Jets by 13 points: <1%New York Jets by 12 points: 1%New York Jets by 11 points: 1%New York Jets by 10 points: 2%New York Jets by 9 points: <1%New York Jets by 8 points: 1%New York Jets by 7 points: 4%New York Jets by 6 points: 3%New York Jets by 5 points: 2%New York Jets by 4 points: 3%New York Jets by 3 points: 7%New York Jets by 2 points: 2%New York Jets by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 7%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 4%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 44 points: <1%
← NYJ wins byNO wins by →
New Orleans Saints wins by 3 or more56%
New Orleans Saints wins by 7 or more40%
New Orleans Saints wins by 10 or more32%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.2 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.568%
Total over 40.547%
Total over 47.528%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYJBrady Cook · last 2 games: 57% completions, 170 yds/game, 1 TD, 5 INTstarted
NOTyler Shough · last 3 games: 70% completions, 218 yds/game, 3 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYJ·NO
Dec 14, 2025 at JAX
last game
Dec 14, 2025 vs CAR
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
NYJ·NO
−0.99
rating (0 = average)
−0.73
19.7
points / game
16.1
28.4
points allowed / game
23.7
3−11
season record
4−10
2−6
home record
2−5
1−5
away record
2−5
L2
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
4−6
276
total yards / game
297
4.5
yards / play
4.8
147
passing yards / game
203
128
rushing yards / game
93
16.9
first downs / game
18.9
1.4
turnovers / game
1.4

Rating Trend

NYJ · NO · 46 days
New York JetsNew Orleans Saints
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · NO 1−0
Dec 12, 2021at NYJNO 30 − 9

NYJ · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Dec 14, 2025at JAX20 − 48L
Dec 7, 2025vs MIA10 − 34L
Nov 30, 2025vs ATL27 − 24W
Nov 23, 2025at BAL10 − 23L
Nov 13, 2025at NE14 − 27L
Nov 9, 2025vs CLE27 − 20W
Oct 26, 2025at CIN39 − 38W
Oct 19, 2025vs CAR6 − 13L
Oct 12, 2025vs DEN11 − 13L
Oct 5, 2025vs DAL22 − 37L

NO · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Dec 14, 2025vs CAR20 − 17W
Dec 7, 2025at TB24 − 20W
Nov 30, 2025at MIA17 − 21L
Nov 23, 2025vs ATL10 − 24L
Nov 9, 2025at CAR17 − 7W
Nov 2, 2025at LAR10 − 34L
Oct 26, 2025vs TB3 − 23L
Oct 19, 2025at CHI14 − 26L
Oct 12, 2025vs NE19 − 25L
Oct 5, 2025vs NYG26 − 14W