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Dolphins at Patriots

NFL · Sunday, Jan 4 · 3:25 PM CT · Gillette Stadium · Final MIA 10 – NE 38
← NFL / Jan 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA0100010
NE14314738
Team box
MIA·NE
180
total yards
457
117
passing yards
214
63
rushing yards
243
13
first downs
22
5-13
third downs
5-10
2
turnovers
0
29:11
time of possession
30:49
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Quinn EwersMIA16/2313711
Drake MayeNE14/1819110
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jaylen WrightMIA13230
Rhamondre StevensonNE71312
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Theo Wease Jr.MIA3440
Hunter HenryNE5560

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NE +28
MIA +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NE 28 · MIA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 29%, NE 71% · Updated Jan 4

Expected margin
NE by 9.0
Expected score
NE 26.9 – 17.9 MIA
Expected total
44.7
DolphinsThe matchupPatriots
+248Our fair odds−248
17.9Expected points26.9
−0.28Power rating+0.46
21.1Points / game28.2
24.1Allowed / game19.4
308Total yards / game374
5.5Yards / play6.1
184Passing yards / game253
7−9Season record13−3
6−4Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · NE chance
Our model fair28.7%71.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Dolphins+24829%————
NENew England Patriots−24871%————
SpreadNE by 9.0
MIAMiami Dolphins+9our margin————
NENew England Patriots−9our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.7
Over44.7our total————
Under44.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New England Patriots by 9.0 expected
Miami Dolphins by 48 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 47 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 46 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 45 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 44 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 43 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 42 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 41 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 40 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 39 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 3%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 2%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 6%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%New England Patriots by 1 point: 2%New England Patriots by 2 points: 3%New England Patriots by 3 points: 7%New England Patriots by 4 points: 2%New England Patriots by 5 points: 2%New England Patriots by 6 points: 4%New England Patriots by 7 points: 4%New England Patriots by 8 points: 3%New England Patriots by 9 points: 1%New England Patriots by 10 points: 2%New England Patriots by 11 points: 1%New England Patriots by 12 points: 2%New England Patriots by 13 points: 2%New England Patriots by 14 points: 2%New England Patriots by 15 points: 1%New England Patriots by 16 points: 1%New England Patriots by 17 points: 4%New England Patriots by 18 points: 2%New England Patriots by 19 points: 1%New England Patriots by 20 points: 2%New England Patriots by 21 points: 2%New England Patriots by 22 points: 1%New England Patriots by 23 points: 2%New England Patriots by 24 points: 2%New England Patriots by 25 points: 1%New England Patriots by 26 points: 1%New England Patriots by 27 points: 1%New England Patriots by 28 points: 1%New England Patriots by 29 points: 1%New England Patriots by 30 points: 1%New England Patriots by 31 points: 2%New England Patriots by 32 points: 1%New England Patriots by 33 points: <1%New England Patriots by 34 points: 1%New England Patriots by 35 points: 1%New England Patriots by 36 points: 1%New England Patriots by 37 points: 1%New England Patriots by 38 points: 1%New England Patriots by 39 points: <1%New England Patriots by 40 points: <1%New England Patriots by 41 points: <1%New England Patriots by 42 points: <1%New England Patriots by 43 points: <1%New England Patriots by 44 points: <1%New England Patriots by 45 points: <1%New England Patriots by 46 points: <1%New England Patriots by 47 points: <1%New England Patriots by 48 points: <1%
← MIA wins byNE wins by →
New England Patriots wins by 3 or more68%
New England Patriots wins by 7 or more53%
New England Patriots wins by 10 or more44%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.7 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.568%
Total over 44.548%
Total over 51.529%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MIAQuinn Ewers · last 3 games: 65% completions, 162 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted
NEDrake Maye · last 3 games: 73% completions, 264 yds/game, 7 TD, 2 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·NE
Dec 28, 2025 vs TB
last game
Dec 28, 2025 at NYJ
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 16+ games
MIA·NE
−0.28
rating (0 = average)
+0.46
21.1
points / game
28.2
24.1
points allowed / game
19.4
7−9
season record
13−3
5−4
home record
5−3
2−5
away record
8−0
W1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
9−1
308
total yards / game
374
5.5
yards / play
6.1
184
passing yards / game
253
124
rushing yards / game
122
17.4
first downs / game
21.1
1.4
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

MIA · NE · 53 days
Miami DolphinsNew England Patriots
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · NE 2−7
Sep 14, 2025at MIANE 33 − 27
Nov 24, 2024at MIAMIA 34 − 15
Oct 6, 2024at NEMIA 15 − 10
Oct 29, 2023at MIAMIA 31 − 17
Sep 17, 2023at NEMIA 24 − 17
Jan 1, 2023at NENE 23 − 21
Sep 11, 2022at MIAMIA 20 − 7
Jan 9, 2022at MIAMIA 33 − 24
Sep 12, 2021at NEMIA 17 − 16

MIA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Dec 28, 2025vs TB20 − 17W
Dec 21, 2025vs CIN21 − 45L
Dec 15, 2025at PIT15 − 28L
Dec 7, 2025at NYJ34 − 10W
Nov 30, 2025vs NO21 − 17W
Nov 16, 2025vs WSH16 − 13W
Nov 9, 2025vs BUF30 − 13W
Oct 30, 2025vs BAL6 − 28L
Oct 26, 2025at ATL34 − 10W
Oct 19, 2025at CLE6 − 31L

NE · Last 10

9−1 · streak W2
Dec 28, 2025at NYJ42 − 10W
Dec 21, 2025at BAL28 − 24W
Dec 14, 2025vs BUF31 − 35L
Dec 1, 2025vs NYG33 − 15W
Nov 23, 2025at CIN26 − 20W
Nov 13, 2025vs NYJ27 − 14W
Nov 9, 2025at TB28 − 23W
Nov 2, 2025vs ATL24 − 23W
Oct 26, 2025vs CLE32 − 13W
Oct 19, 2025at TEN31 − 13W