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Jaguars at Broncos

NFL · Sunday, Dec 21 · 3:05 PM CT · Empower Field at Mile High · Final JAX 34 – DEN 20
← NFL / Dec 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
JAX71014334
DEN0107320
Team box
JAX·DEN
346
total yards
445
265
passing yards
344
81
rushing yards
101
22
first downs
21
8-15
third downs
5-14
0
turnovers
2
33:13
time of possession
26:47
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Trevor LawrenceJAX23/3627930
Bo NixDEN28/4735211
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Travis Etienne Jr.JAX16500
RJ HarveyDEN7501
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Parker WashingtonJAX61451
Courtland SuttonDEN6861

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DEN +17
JAX +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DEN 3 · JAX 17lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was JAX 37%, DEN 63% · Updated Dec 21, 2025

Expected margin
DEN by 4.5
Expected score
DEN 24.1 – 19.6 JAX
Expected total
43.6
JaguarsThe matchupBroncos
+173Our fair odds−173
19.6Expected points24.1
+0.35Power rating+0.66
26.9Points / game24.4
20.9Allowed / game18.6
336Total yards / game346
5.3Yards / play5.4
215Passing yards / game226
10−4Season record12−2
7−3Last 1010−0

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
JAX chance · DEN chance
Our model fair36.6%63.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+17337%————
DENDenver Broncos−17363%————
SpreadDEN by 4.5
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+4.5our margin————
DENDenver Broncos−4.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 43.6
Over43.6our total————
Under43.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Denver Broncos by 4.5 expected
Jacksonville Jaguars by 44 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 43 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 42 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 41 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 40 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 39 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 7%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 2%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 7%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 13 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 15 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 19 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 25 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 40 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 41 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 42 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 43 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 44 points: <1%
← JAX wins byDEN wins by →
Denver Broncos wins by 3 or more56%
Denver Broncos wins by 7 or more40%
Denver Broncos wins by 10 or more32%
Within 3 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

43.6 expected
9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 36.569%
Total over 43.548%
Total over 50.529%
Total from 37 to 5039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 60% completions, 268 yds/game, 9 TD, 0 INTstarted
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 71% completions, 278 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
JAX·DEN
Dec 14, 2025 vs NYJ
last game
Dec 14, 2025 vs GB
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 14+ games
JAX·DEN
+0.35
rating (0 = average)
+0.66
26.9
points / game
24.4
20.9
points allowed / game
18.6
10−4
season record
12−2
6−2
home record
7−0
4−2
away record
5−2
W5
streak
W11
7−3
last 10
10−0
336
total yards / game
346
5.3
yards / play
5.4
215
passing yards / game
226
121
rushing yards / game
120
20.6
first downs / game
19.9
1.1
turnovers / game
1.0

Rating Trend

JAX · DEN · 46 days
Jacksonville JaguarsDenver Broncos
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · DEN 2−0
Oct 30, 2022at JAXDEN 21 − 17
Sep 19, 2021at JAXDEN 23 − 13

JAX · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Dec 14, 2025vs NYJ48 − 20W
Dec 7, 2025vs IND36 − 19W
Nov 30, 2025at TEN25 − 3W
Nov 23, 2025at ARI27 − 24W
Nov 16, 2025vs LAC35 − 6W
Nov 9, 2025at HOU29 − 36L
Nov 2, 2025at LV30 − 29W
Oct 19, 2025vs LAR7 − 35L
Oct 12, 2025vs SEA12 − 20L
Oct 6, 2025vs KC31 − 28W

DEN · Last 10

10−0 · streak W10
Dec 14, 2025vs GB34 − 26W
Dec 7, 2025at LV24 − 17W
Nov 30, 2025at WSH27 − 26W
Nov 16, 2025vs KC22 − 19W
Nov 6, 2025vs LV10 − 7W
Nov 2, 2025at HOU18 − 15W
Oct 26, 2025vs DAL44 − 24W
Oct 19, 2025vs NYG33 − 32W
Oct 12, 2025at NYJ13 − 11W
Oct 5, 2025at PHI21 − 17W